Assessment of the Impact of Road Conditions on Accidents With the Application of the Multifactor Model

Abstract

Introduction. The process of an accident is complex because it depends on a large number of factors, the rela-tionship of which is sometimes not obvious enough. The process of a traffic accident is influenced by such conditions as: permanent (for example road conditions) and accidental (weather conditions, technical condition of the vehicle, psycho-physiological condition of the driver). In other words, road conditions are changing over a certain period: the level of road surface and road grip is deteriorating, roads are being reconstructed. However, the time during which these changes occur is incomparably greater than the time of changes in weather conditions, the technical condition of vehicles, the psycho-physiological condition of the driver. Therefore, if we are talking about a specific road accident or a group of road accidents committed in a relatively short time, then such a question is justified.Purpose. The work aimed to study the method of accident coefficients with the introduction of additional cost coefficients in this method, which allows establishing those sections of roads on which measures should be taken to improve conditions or reconstruction of individual road sections in the first place.Methods. During the research, a multifactor model of the influence of road conditions on the accident rate of road sections was used.
 Results. The paper found that the parameter αі is an indicator of the level of influence of the i-th factor (private accident rate) on the final characteristic of the accident. Calculations for many variants of road sections of different cate-gories show that the range of change of parameter αi is quite wide and depends on the combination of road conditions. Numerical values can both increase the weight share of the i-th factor in the final accident, and reduce it.Conclusion. It is proposed to adopt the method of accident coefficients as the basis of the statistical model of mutual influence of road conditions. Express a multifactor model of the influence of road conditions on the accident rate of road sections by a multiplicative functional dependence and obtain the parameters of the statistical relationship between the factors (αі та А0). Interpret the parameter А0 as part of the final accident rate, independent of road conditions, or not taken into account by private accident rates. And the parameter αі - as the degree of influence of the i-th factor on the final accident rate.