Assessment of the impact of climate and non-climatic parameters on cocoa production: a contextual analysis for Cameroon

Abstract

Agriculture remains the mainstay of Cameroon's economy, with cocoa as one of its key export commodities. However, cocoa production may be affected by climate-related stressors. This study assesses the influence of climate and non-climate parameters on cocoa performance in Cameroon. We use time series data for temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, land use, labour hours, pesticide application, and cocoa output in Cameroon spanning 60 years (1961 to 2021). Trend analyses reveal a stochastic response of crop production under climate variation. Leveraging on the perennial crop supply response framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) reveals short-term climate impacts on cocoa production. The econometric estimation shows that climate and non-climate parameters explain the variations in cocoa output. More specifically, the short-run results reveal that temperature, carbon dioxide emission, land use, and pesticide quantity significantly increase crop yield, whereas rainfall decreases it substantially. Furthermore, the long-run analysis indicates that temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, and land use are significant negative determinants of the yearly changes in cocoa output. We recommend government policy reforms which address access to land, subsidies/climate finance and improved production technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance farmers' adaptive capacities to climatic stressors.

Climate, agroecology, and farm returns: differential impacts with implications for agricultural progress in the face of climate change

“…Some studies have rather evaluated the direct impact on crop production and they show varying impacts. For example, a study by Bomdzele and Molua (2023) show that climate change affects cocoa production while other studies have shown that it affects food crop production as well (Ngondjeb, 2013;Sotamenou and Saleu, 2013;Defang et al, 2014). This study provides additional empirical evidence on the impact of climate change on farm revenue in Cameroon.…”

“…To our knowledge, only the studies by Molua, (2009Molua, ( , 2022 have evaluated the effect of climate change on farm income in Cameroon. This is surprising given that Cameroon like most developing countries is already exposed to climate change and its impacts (Molua et al, 2010Molua, 2022;Bomdzele and Molua, 2023;Ngaiwi et al, 2023). Other studies from Cameroon have largely focused on adaptation strategies of farmers (Bele et al, 2011;Awazi et al, 2022;Ngaiwi et al, 2023).…”

Integrating climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes in food systems policies and programs in Africa

“…It is worth noting that African economies (especially low-income producers and consumers) are expected to bear the brunt of these changes due to their limited resources for investing in adaptation and diversification measures (Bailey et al, 2015;Bomdzele & Molua, 2023; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2014; UNCCD, 2017). It has been acknowledged that smallholder farming systems are exceptionally susceptible to the impacts of climate change (Morton, 2007).…”