Assessment of the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) afforestation under climate change scenarios in Southwest Spain

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M.; Ruíz-Gómez, Francisco J.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.11.042

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The robustness of MAXENT and GLM for Pc distribution in Andalusia has been reported previously (Duque-Lazo et al, 2016). Elswhere, RF has been shown to be a solid alternative (Duque-Lazo et al, 2018). Although the Kappa values were sometimes acceptable (>0.70, GAM), mostly they were only just better than random (>0.65).…”

Section: Model Accuracysupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Ensemble models combine several distribution models to obtain a single model minimizing the biases and inaccuracies of single models(Duque-Lazo and Navarro-Cerrillo, 2017; Duque-Lazo et al, 2018;Kukunda et al, 2018). In this study, we report on the mean, median, coefficient of variation, upper and lower confidence interval (CISUP and CIINF respectively), committee averaging (CA) and probability mean weight decay (MWD) ensemble modelling techniques.…”

Section: Ensemble Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Duque-Lazo

Navarro-Cerrillo

Gils

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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Section: Model Accuracysupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Ensemble Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Duque-Lazo

Navarro-Cerrillo

Gils

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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“…Thus, it will be essential to use the most adapted material for (re)forestation to maximize the species productivity and contribute to its long-term maintenance under ongoing environmental changes. Additionally, models anticipating climate change-driven tree redistribution for the Mediterranean region (e.g., Benito Garzón et al, 2008;Vessella et al, 2017;Duque-Lazo et al, 2018) should start considering within-species variation for a more efficient management and conservation of the forest resources. An important advance in these models was the work of Schirone et al (2016) where ecological niche modeling was performed according to different climatic scenarios to forecast the expansion/retreat of 4 cork oak haplotypes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seed origin drives differences in survival and growth traits of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) populations

Sampaio

Gonçalves

Patrício

et al. 2019

Forest Ecology and Management

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Cork oak (Quercus suber L.) has a high ecological and social value and supplies raw materials for the cork industry, a relevant contributor to the economies of Mediterranean countries. Understanding the adaptation potential of cork oak populations to cope with different environmental conditions is a key issue of forest management, particularly for selecting the most adapted genetic material for (re)forestation and assuring the long-term sustainability of the cork industry. Intraspecific variation in fitness surrogate traits (survival, height and stem diameter) was investigated in thirty-five cork oak populations sampled from the entire range of the natural distribution of the species. The study was conducted in two provenance field trials, established in Portugal under different edaphoclimatic conditions. Each trial was surveyed at four tree ages (two ages, 11 and 14 years, were sampled simultaneously in both trials). The trial located at a lower altitude, which had higher mean winter and annual temperatures, exhibited higher growth and survival rates. In both trials, significant genetic variation among cork oak populations was observed for the analyzed traits and evaluated ages. Moroccan populations displayed a higher probability of survival and higher growth rates, while local populations exhibited an intermediate performance. Low to moderate correlations were found between the analyzed traits and the environmental variables of seed origin, suggesting that factors other than climate are likely to be relevant for cork oak adaptation. Moderate to high values of population mean-basis broad-sense heritability (H 2 ≥ 0.44) and high genetic correlations between traits (0.88-0.95) were found for growth traits. This information is crucial for the establishment of a breeding program for the species. With this study, we have improved the knowledge regarding how cork oak performs for fitness surrogate traits in different environments.

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“…Among these, the delineation of planting areas will be an important link based on survival rate of yew with respect to climate change. For example, Duque-Lazo et al (2018) found there was a significant linear positive correlation (r 2 = 0.414, p \ 0.05) between the survival rate of cork oak afforestation and the potential probability of presence by predicting the suitable area distribution of cork oak based on SDMs.…”

Section: Management Priorities Of T Wallichiana Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region

Zhu

Xie

et al. 2019

J. For. Res.

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Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana's distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960-1990, hereafter ''current'') and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31-55% at a rate of 3-7%/ 10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20-30% at a rate of 2-4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift upslope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42-100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability.

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Assessment of the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) afforestation under climate change scenarios in Southwest Spain

Cited by 41 publications

References 29 publications

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Seed origin drives differences in survival and growth traits of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) populations

Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region

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