Assessment of soil erosion under long-term projections of climate change in Poland

Marcinkowski, Paweł; Szporak-Wasilewska, Sylwia; Kardel, Ignacy

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127468

Cited by 33 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The projected decline in PSMD might improve climatic suitability of land for agriculture in the central region of Poland (Daccache et al, 2012) which currently suffers from substantial deficits due to low precipitation (Lupikasza, 2010). Besides water availability, increased precipitation during spring and autumn seasons, when the vegetation cover is sparse, can cause a loss of soil fertility due to increased water erosion (Panagos et al, 2018; Marcinkowski et al, 2022). To prevent that in the future, soil conservation practices should be implemented in risk areas.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mountainous areas stretch along the southern border of the country from where the elevation gradient decreases towards the north. Most of the country is composed of medium to fast permeable sandy soils with a small share of impermeable soils (Marcinkowski et al, 2022). Poland features temperate climate with cold winters (particularly in the northeastern part), and warm summers determined by the geographical location of the country and its landform features (Peel et al, 2007).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro‐climatic indicators in Poland

Marcinkowski

Piniewski

Jefimow

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study presents a long‐term assessment of the impact of projected climate change on selected agro‐climatic indicators in Poland. The analysis was based on an ensemble of six bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX projections covering the period from 2006 to 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5, and partly on simulations of an agro‐hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The indicators included growing season (length, beginning, and ending date), growing degree days, frost days, accumulated frost, and planting and harvest timing. The study focused on four major crops cultivated in Poland, namely spring barley, rapeseed, maize silage, and potato. The analysis revealed a significant future increase in precipitation and mean temperature in Poland reaching +10.3% and 3.4°C by the end of century, respectively. Warmer conditions will significantly accelerate the beginning of the growing season (by up to 24 days) and delay its ending (by up to 18 days), consequently significantly extending its length throughout the country (by up to 42 days). A decrease is projected in potential soil moisture deficit by up to 26 mm by the end of century in the high‐end emission scenario. A significant advancement (by up to 30 days) in planting timing is projected for the future for all crops under consideration. A significant increase in growing degree days (by up to 760°C‐days) will also advance the harvest timing (by up to 54 days). The projected temperature increase over the winter season will result in a significant decrease in frost days (by 56 days) and accumulated frost (by 375°C‐days), which may lead to an increased presence of pests. This study can provide a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to the local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security at the national and local scale.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro‐climatic indicators in Poland

Marcinkowski

Piniewski

Jefimow

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…The parameters of microtopography and surface vegetation cover are significantly altered by land-use change. Dramatic land-use changes can result in a decrease in soil organic matter content, destruction of soil structure, and other cascading consequences, including reduced grain yield, increased flood risk, river siltation, and water eutrophication [10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion Caused by Water in China

et al. 2023

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Soil erosion poses a significant threat to land conservation, freshwater security, and ocean ecology. Climate change, with rainfall as one of its primary drivers, exacerbates this problem. Therefore, reliably predicting future soil erosion rates and taking into account anthropogenic influences are crucial for policymakers and researchers in the earth-system field. To address this challenge, we have developed a novel framework that combines the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to estimate erosion rates on a national scale. We used BMA to merge five Regional Climate Models (RCMs), reducing uncertainty in ensemble simulations and improving the plausibility of projected changes in climatic regimes over China under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The RUSLE model was applied to forecast the effects of climate change and land-use change on water erosion in China, using high-resolution climate simulation and prediction inputs. Our findings revealed that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, average annual soil loss will increase by 21.20% and 33.06%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. Our analysis also demonstrated a clear distinction between the effects of climate change and land-use change on water erosion. Climate change leads to an increase in precipitation, which exacerbates water erosion rates, with contributions ranging from 59.99% to 78.21%. Furthermore, an increase in radiative forcing will further amplify the effects of climate change. The transformation of land from one that has not been disturbed by humans to one that has been exposed to some soil and water conservation measures will have a mitigating effect on water erosion, with a contribution of −6.96% to −4.68%. Therefore, implementing effective soil and water conservation measures can somewhat mitigate the severity of ongoing soil loss. Our findings have significant implications for policymakers seeking to develop national strategies for soil conservation and model developers working to reduce uncertainty in erosion predictions.

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“…Anthropogenic impacts on the environment can influence the characteristics of soils. Some of the main examples are studies projecting the increase in erosion globally because of climate change [44,45]. In addition, the use of chemical fertilizers can affect the biological activity in the soil.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Gardens’ Potential to Improve Stormwater Management: A Comparative Analysis among Urban Soils in Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2022

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Permeable surfaces are increasingly rare in urban centers, but they have the utmost importance for stormwater infiltration. In this context, green spaces are key to reducing problems caused by runoff. This work aimed to evaluate the physical characteristics of the soil used for agroecological gardening, in comparison with parks, wasteland, and riparian forest in Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil. During the one-year data collection, urban gardens were superior to other areas in hydraulic conductivity (35.8 mm h−1), humidity (25.8%), and soil penetration resistance (1.21 MPa). On the other hand, the riparian forest showed signs of soil degradation, with low water infiltration rates (121.9 mm h−1) and humidity (14.4%). These findings highlight the importance of better soil management solutions to avoid compaction, such as the protection and conservation of riparian forests. Furthermore, the encouragement of urban gardens and parks with multiple uses can be an option for the enhancement of stormwater management in cities, since this practice has the potential to improve the physical characteristics of urban soils and provide several ecosystem services.

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Assessment of soil erosion under long-term projections of climate change in Poland

Cited by 33 publications

References 73 publications

Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro‐climatic indicators in Poland

Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro‐climatic indicators in Poland

Assessing Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion Caused by Water in China

Urban Gardens’ Potential to Improve Stormwater Management: A Comparative Analysis among Urban Soils in Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil

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