Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro‐climatic indicators in Poland

Abstract

This study presents a long‐term assessment of the impact of projected climate change on selected agro‐climatic indicators in Poland. The analysis was based on an ensemble of six bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX projections covering the period from 2006 to 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5, and partly on simulations of an agro‐hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The indicators included growing season (length, beginning, and ending date), growing degree days, frost days, accumulated frost, and planting and harvest timing. The study focused on four major crops cultivated in Poland, namely spring barley, rapeseed, maize silage, and potato. The analysis revealed a significant future increase in precipitation and mean temperature in Poland reaching +10.3% and 3.4°C by the end of century, respectively. Warmer conditions will significantly accelerate the beginning of the growing season (by up to 24 days) and delay its ending (by up to 18 days), consequently significantly extending its length throughout the country (by up to 42 days). A decrease is projected in potential soil moisture deficit by up to 26 mm by the end of century in the high‐end emission scenario. A significant advancement (by up to 30 days) in planting timing is projected for the future for all crops under consideration. A significant increase in growing degree days (by up to 760°C‐days) will also advance the harvest timing (by up to 54 days). The projected temperature increase over the winter season will result in a significant decrease in frost days (by 56 days) and accumulated frost (by 375°C‐days), which may lead to an increased presence of pests. This study can provide a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to the local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security at the national and local scale.