Assessment of Socio-Economic Consequences of Hazardous Abrasion and Landslide Processes in the Coastal Zone of the Azov Sea

Abstract

The main factors of the formation of hazardous coastal processes have been established, 38 functional areas and a zone of impact of hazardous abrasion and landslide processes predicted for a 20-year period have been identified in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea by their uniform combination in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea. In the forecasted area, 112 socio-economic objects have been identified that are exposed to hazardous abrasion and landslide processes. A methodology has been developed and the socio-economic risk of manifestation of abrasion and landslide processes in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea has been assessed. The highest values of the socio-economic risk of abrasion and landslide processes occur in abrasion and abrasion-landslide areas of the coast with a high speed abrasion, a large number of capital construction projects and a high value of material losses. For socio-economic objects in the risk zone, an enlarged calculation of the possible economic damage was made. The value of the predicted (in the future for 20 years) total economic damage from the consequences of the manifestation of abrasion and landslide processes in the coastal zone of the Azov Sea will amount to 756,7 million rubles, of which 114,4 million rubles will fall on the northern coast of the Taganrog Bay, 156,8 million rubles – to the southern coast of the Taganrog Bay and 485,6 million rubles – to the southeast coast of the Azov Sea. The most dangerous areas of abrasion and landslide processes for capital construction sites are: on the northern shore of the Taganrog Bay – Botsmanovsky, with damage to capital structures – more than 50 million rubles, Zolotokosovsky – more than 16 million rubles; Kuchugurskiy – more than 17 million rubles – on the southeast coast of the Azov Sea.