Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

Shrestha, Sangam; Bajracharya, A. R.; Babel, Mukand S.

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.002

Cited by 42 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Table 2 [66]. e ensemble mean method calculated by simple arithmetic average [102] was used to assess the future climate in the UNRB which was previously used by Shrestha et al [103] and Bhatta et al [8]. Furthermore, the bias-corrected future climate was analyzed under three time windows.…”

Section: Watershed Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Gunathilake

Amaratunga

Perera

et al. 2020

Advances in Meteorology

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Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners.

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Section: Watershed Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Gunathilake

Amaratunga

Perera

et al. 2020

Advances in Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In comparison, Grijsen (2014) assessed five hydropower river basins in Cameroon using one emission scenario A1B but 15 GCMs. Shrestha et al (2016) consider the more recent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with three GCMs (MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M) to assess risk due to climate change for a hydropower project in Nepal. These studies, among others (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

et al. 2017

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This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador's installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071-2100 relative to a baseline period 1971-2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to − 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between − 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble.

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“…The worldclim data showed that the annual average temperature varies from -11.8 to 11.55 °C (Fick and Hijmans, 2017). However, the temperature recorded in the nearest station at Jiri ranges from -2 to 25 °C (Shrestha, Bajracharya, and Babel, 2016). Similarly, the annual average rainfall ranges from 249-2454 mm (Fick and Hijmans, 2017), and higher rainfall is concentrated in the river valley in the Nepalese part ( Figure-3).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of denudation rate and erosion susceptibility in the upper Tamakoshi basin in the higher Himalayas, Nepal

Ghimire

Timalsina

2021

Geog. J. Nepal

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The higher rate of slope erosion in the Himalayan basins is contributing to rapid change in landform in the mountainous terrain, which has caused sedimentation, and inundation downstream. The Tamakoshi basin is a trans-boundary river that originates from Tibet and flows through Dolakha and Ramechap districts before joining the Sapta Koshi river. Few studies exist in Nepal attempting to quantify the erosion rate and susceptibility. However, they are scattered and mainly focus on either rill-sheet erosion or landslide only. Hence, this study attempted to estimate slope erosion by applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and soil and debris erosion from landslide (2000-2019). Spatially distributed erosion intensity maps derived from the RUSLE model, as well as index-based landslide susceptibility map, were integrated to capture both running water and gravity erosion processes. The novelty of this research is that it examined the soil erosion rate using a process-based model as well as from the soil or rock displaced by the observed landslides over the last 20 years. The study estimated gross annual erosion by running water of 9.1million tons/yr, equivalent to the denudation rate of 3.34 mm/yr. Of these, landslide erosion accounts for 7.6 million ton/yr, i.e., 2.88 mm/yr, this covers about 84% of total slope erosion. High landslide and erosion potential areas are associated with high rainfall, steep slopes, scarps, lower segment of valley side slopes, high relief, and highly fractured and deformed parts of high-grade metamorphic rocks, such as gneiss, quartzite, marbles, migmatite, and granitic gneiss.

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Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

Cited by 42 publications

References 16 publications

Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

Assessment of denudation rate and erosion susceptibility in the upper Tamakoshi basin in the higher Himalayas, Nepal

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