Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

Abstract

This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador's installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071-2100 relative to a baseline period 1971-2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to − 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between − 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble.

Collaborative energy visioning under conditions of illiberal democracy: results and recommendations from Ecuador

“…Crude oil and fossil fuels were given significant incentives for production and trade. The electricity sector pursued a hydrothermal electricity mix, consisting of large scale hydropower and fossil-fuel-based thermal-electric plants [15,16]. This period of neoliberalism lasted for nearly three decades, from 1979 until 2007.…”

“…The concept of 'energy matrix change' or 'energy transition' has legitimised the new energy policy by promising a gradual increase of the share of renewable energy [15,16]. This increase of renewables is intended mainly to be implemented by the electricity sector, by decreasing fossil fuel-based thermal-electric plants and investing in eight new hydropower plants, the latter funded mainly by the pre-sales of crude oil to the Chinese government [17].…”

“…By 2017, Ecuador was expected to attain 90% of its electricity generated through renewable energy sources, mainly hydropower [16]. In principle, this objective might secure a sustainable energy supply for industrial innovation.…”

“…The Ecuadorian context provides a test-bed for the socio-political process of transition management in similar countries where some of the following Ecuadorian characteristics may be present: economic vulnerability due to dependency on oil exports and its fluctuating price [14], oil production approaching a peak, fossil fuel prices being highly subsidised [15], significant potential for the use of hydropower and/or other renewable energy sources [16,17], high dependence on knowledge and technology transfer processes [18], compromised institutions for social and environmental governance [19] and a highly centralised energy system [17].…”

Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability

“…Moreover, the effects of future climate change on hydropower resources introduce another major source of uncertainty for the development of the sector; for instance, van Vliet et al [7] and Zhang et al [6] suggest an increase in hydropower potential in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (North of 55 • latitude) and tropical Africa and a decrease in the US, Southern Africa, Europe and Southern Latin America. Carvajal et al [12] estimated uncertainty in annual hydropower generation in Ecuador due to climate change at between −55% and +39% with respect to the average historical production. Turner et al [13] showed that there is no clarity regarding the impacts of climate on hydropower in Latin America, which increases or decreases depending on the specific basin.…”