Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability

Abstract

To achieve sustainable development of hydroelectric resources, it is necessary to understand their availability, variability, and the expected impacts of climate change. Current research has mainly focused on estimating hydropower potential or determining the optimal locations for hydropower projects without considering the variability and historical trends of the resources. Herein, the hydropower potential variability from reconstructed streamflow series estimated with a non-parametric gap-filling method and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques are analyzed. The relationships between hydropower and large-scale climate variability, expressed by sea surface temperature, are explored. Finally, we project hydropower potential through 2050 using 15 global circulation models with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. We used four watersheds in central Chile as a case study. The results show significant interannual and inter-basin hydropower potential variability, with decreasing trends over time modulated by alternating positive and negative decadal trends; these modulations exhibit greater intensities than the general trends and are attributable to climatic oscillations such as El Niño. Future scenarios indicate high hydropower availability and a possible over-investment in hydroelectric plants in two of the four studied watersheds. Results show the need to improve the current policies that promote hydropower development including hydropower resource variability in order to achieve optimal, sustainable hydropower development worldwide.

Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change

“…In previous studies, the most common way to prospect the future hydropower potential under climate change is to use a hydrological model with a climate model to simulate the discharge first, and then calculate the potential. Several studies evaluated the impacts of climate change on hydrology using hydrological models [49,[60][61][62][63][64]. Kim et al (2018) estimated the SHP potential under climate change using a grid-based surface runoff model [44].…”

“…Hamududu and Killingtveit (2012) simulated changes in runoff using 12 different GCMs and estimated the hydropower generated under climate change [45]. Kim As mentioned above, many studies have been continuously conducted to estimate the SHP potential under climate change for the existing SHP plants [45,49,[60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73]. However, few studies have been conducted on the estimation of the SHP potential in ungauged basins for the estimation of the available power generation potential.…”

Strategic methodology to set priorities for sustainable hydropower development in a biodiversity hotspot

“…As a result of the incentives of the Chilean Energy Policy that promotes that at least 70% of electricity generation should be from renewable sources by 2050 during the last decade the small hydropower sector increased in the Chilean energy matrix (Ministry of Energy, 2015; Arriagada et al, 2019) and many hydropower projects are planned for the near future. Until now, no hydropower projects have been built with a fishway provided.…”

Evaluation of the Water–Energy–Land Nexus (WELN) Using Exergy-Based Indicators: The Chilean Electricity System Case

“…However, hydropower is highly vulnerable to climate change. In fact, Chile has registered a drastic reduction in rainfall, extensive drought and, consequently, water scarcity, which affects the plant factor for those technologies based on hydric resources [78]. On the other hand, there is an intense competition between hydroelectricity generation with other water uses (i.e., irrigation, industry, domestic use, etc.).…”