Assessment of Quantitative Aftershock Productivity Potential in Mining-Induced Seismicity

Abstract

Abstract-Strong mining-induced earthquakes exhibit various aftershock patterns. The aftershock productivity is governed by the geomechanical properties of rock in the seismogenic zone, mininginduced stress and coseismic stress changes related to the main shock's magnitude, source geometry and focal mechanism. In order to assess the quantitative aftershock productivity potential in the mining environment we apply a forecast model based on natural seismicity properties, namely constant tectonic loading and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Although previous studies proved that mining-induced seismicity does not obey the simple power law, here we apply it as an approximation of seismicity distribution to resolve the number of aftershocks, not considering their magnitudes. The model used forecasts the aftershock productivity based on the background seismicity level estimated from an average seismic moment released per earthquake and static stress changes caused by a main shock. Thus it accounts only for aftershocks directly triggered by coseismic process. In this study we use data from three different mines, Mponeng (South Africa), Rudna and Bobrek (Poland), representing different geology, exploitation methods and aftershock patterns. Each studied case is treated with individual parameterization adjusted to the data specifics. We propose the modification of the original model, i.e. including the non-uniformity of M 0 , resulting from spatial correlation of mining-induced seismicity with exploitation. The results show that, even when simplified seismicity distribution parameters are applied, the modified model predicts the number of aftershocks for each analyzed case well and accounts for variations between these values. Such results are thus another example showing that coseismic processes of mining-induced seismicity reflect features of natural seismicity and that similar models can be applied to study the aftershock rate in both the natural and the mining environment.

Numerical Modeling of Complex Stress State in a Fault Damage Zone and Its Implication on Near‐Fault Seismic Activity

“…Importantly, the location, frequency, and source parameters of seismic events provide mining engineers with valuable information (J. P. Liu, et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2018a; Tierney & Morkel, 2017; Wang et al., 2019). For instance, this includes the in‐situ stress level (Konicek & Waclawik, 2018; Kozłowska & Orlecka‐Sikora, 2017; Ma et al., 2016), its orientation (Ma et al., 2019b; Mahdevari et al., 2016), burst proneness of rock, the evolution of mining‐induced stress re‐distribution (Abolfazlzadeh & Hudyma, 2016; Beer et al., 2017; Pariseau & McCarterr, 2017), potential for the occurrence of seismic events with large magnitudes (Ma et al., 2018), discrimination between natural and anthropogenic seismicity (Lizurek, 2017), and so forth. Due to the depletion of shallow ore deposits, mining depths have been continuously increasing around the world over time.…”

Relationship between the focal mechanism of magnitude ML3.3 seismic event induced by mining and distribution of peak ground velocity

“…It is an important element of both the protection of the environment and the formation of a partnership between mining enterprises and local communities, particularly in terms of the acceptance of mining activities. USCB is one of the high seismic areas in Poland induced by mining activity [7,8,9,10,11,12]. In the years 2006-2016 there were 13216 shocks with magnitude above 1.6, including 31 very strong (ML magnitude = 3.26÷4.11) comparable to weak earthquakes.…”