Abstract
Background Esophageal cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related death worldwide 1 . Despite significant progress in the overall treatment of esophageal cancer in recent years, the prognosis for patients who require surgery remains poor. Methods The current paper studied the clinicopathological features of 503 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy at the Huashan Hospital of Fudan University between January 2005 and January 2015. Nomograms which predicted esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) survival rates were established using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Discrimination and calibration, calculated after bootstrapping, were used as a measure of accuracy. Results Multivariate analyses were used to select five independent prognostic variables to build the nomogram. These variables were pathological T stage, pathological N factor, rate of positive LNs, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and postoperative sepsis. The nomogram was built to predict the rates of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The concordance indices of the nomogram prediction of OS and DFS were 0.720 and 0.707, respectively. Compared to the conventional TNM staging system, the nomogram has better predictive accuracy for survival (OS 0.720 vs 0.672, P<0.001; DFS 0.707 vs 0.667, P<0.001). Conclusions The aims of this study were to assess comorbidities and postoperative complications in patients with esophageal cancer and to design a nomogram for the prediction of long-term survival in patients with ESCC. To the best of the knowledge of the authors of this study, this is the first attempt to establish an ESCC nomogram based on comorbidities and postoperative complications using a relatively large cohort of patients.