Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility using Weight of Evidence and Frequency Ratio Model in Shahpur Valley, Eastern Hindu Kush

Abstract

<jats:p>Abstract. This study assessing the landslide susceptibility using Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Frequency Ratio (FR) model in Shahpur valley, situated in the eastern Hindu Kush. Here, landslide is a recurrent phenomenon that disrupts natural environment and cause huge property damages as well as incurs human losses every year. These damages are expected to increase due to high rate of deforestation in the region, population growth, agricultural expansion and infrastructural development on the fragile slopes. Initially, landslide inventory map was prepared from SPOT5 satellite image and were verified from frequent visits in the field. Seven landslide contributing factors including surface geology, fault lines, slope aspect and gradient, land use, proximity to roads and stream were selected. To analyze the relationship of landslide occurrence with these causative factors, WoE and FR models were used. Based on WoE and FR model landslide susceptibility zonation maps were prepared and were reclassified into very low to very high landslide susceptible zones. Finally, the resultant maps of landslide susceptibility were authenticated using success rate curve and prediction rate curve approach to validate the models. </jats:p>

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“…This is in contrast with our results, where the most stable zones were dominated by cropland and sparse vegetation in the downstream areas, and the unstable zones were located in the high mountain with water/snow and bare areas. The high susceptibility level in the snow and bare areas was also proven by the studies of Rahman et al [37] and Chalkias et al [76], where the presence of rock masses does not support any vegetation in the higher slopes. Based on the same effect of vegetation, the forest cover can protect the mountainous slopes from climatic effects and mass movements as the roots hold the underneath soil and keep the slopes stable [37].…”

“…The high susceptibility level in the snow and bare areas was also proven by the studies of Rahman et al [37] and Chalkias et al [76], where the presence of rock masses does not support any vegetation in the higher slopes. Based on the same effect of vegetation, the forest cover can protect the mountainous slopes from climatic effects and mass movements as the roots hold the underneath soil and keep the slopes stable [37]. However, most forest areas cover the high-to mid-streams in the Mailuu-Suu catchment, where a high susceptibility level was identified.…”

“…As one of the most disastrous natural hazards, land sliding is one of the complex geomorphic processes that is affected by several triggering factors, which differ greatly from region to region [9,36,37]. The relative importance analysis indicated that distance to faults, precipitation, slope, and elevation were more relevant to the structure of the spatial patterns of LSI and VOL than other environmental variables.…”

“…The development of land sliding is one of the most complex geomorphological processes, and has potential relationships with the topographic variables (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect), land cover, soil type, precipitation pattern, and possibly also proximity variables (e.g., distance to faults, roads, and streams) [19,[35][36][37]. Topography is one of the critical variables in the landslide phenomenon: elevation determines the temperature gradient and the distribution of vegetation [38,39]; slope and aspect are related to the exposure to sunlight and drying wind, and they can influence the soil moisture and the distribution of vegetation [13].…”

“…Intensive rainfall events can also increase the probability of landslides in mountainous areas [35,43,44]. Moreover, the proximity variables are related to lineament, anthropogenic activities, and erosion processes [36,37,45]. However, the relative importance of these environmental variables is different and varies from catchment to catchment.…”