Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model

Morimoto, Tadatsugu; Ishikawa, Hirofumi

doi:10.1007/s12199-009-0122-9

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Increases in the duration of the epidemic of 1–3 weeks were commonly predicted [14] , [18] , [22] , [25] , [30] – [32] , with some models predicting increases of about a month [15] , [19] , [24] , [45] , [47] or more [8] , [29] . Four studies suggested that school closures could shorten the epidemic (by 11 days [48] , 2–3 weeks [8] , [36] , ∼1–3 months [16] ), whilst another found little effect on the duration [26] .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The pre-infectious and infectious periods, the degree of infectiousness over time, and the serial interval, were often based on (or consistent with) data from household studies [9] , [11] , [19] , [29] , other transmission studies [9] , [11] , [30] , [46] or data on virus shedding [8] , [29] , [49] . The individual-based models often utilised detailed data on population characteristics, such as household sizes and age structure, commuting distances and frequency of airline travel, to allow detailed prediction of the spatiotemporal spread of infection [7] , [9] – [11] , [23] , [25] , [37] , [42] , [44] , [47] , [50] . Differences between models in any of these parameters could contribute to the differences in their predictions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundSchool closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies.ObjectivesTo systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies.MethodsWe searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns.ResultsSchool closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20–60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns.ConclusionsSimulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Currently, there is no known treatment for AHC; therefore, control measures, including isolation and school closure, are often implemented during an AHC outbreak. Isolation effectively controls the spread of infectious diseases [9][10][11], and school closure is considered effective for preventing the spread of influenza [12,13]; however, some studies have shown that school closures might only slightly reduce the cumulative infection rate [14][15][16]. Therefore, controversy remains regarding the effectiveness of school closures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Outbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) - a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection - often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004-2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77-25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00-2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.

show abstract

“…Second, a reactive school closure is implemented when many children and staff are infected. Simulation and empirical studies of pandemic influenza have reported that school closure mainly reduced the peak incidence, while only slightly reducing the cumulative infection attack rate [ 7 – 9 ]. Detailed strategies such as timing and duration should be considered depending on the severity of the influenza strain and the degree of the basic reproductive number [ 10 – 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Impact of School Closure on the Transmission Dynamics during the Pandemic Flu H1N1-2009 in Oita, Japan

Kawano

Kakehashi

2015

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundSchool closure is considered as an effective measure to prevent pandemic influenza. Although Japan has implemented many class, grade, and whole school closures during the early stage of the pandemic 2009, the effectiveness of such a school closure has not been analysed appropriately. In addition, analysis based on evidence or data from a large population has yet to be performed. We evaluated the preventive effect of school closure against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and examined efficient strategies of reactive school closure.Materials and MethodsData included daily reports of reactive school closures and the number of infected students in the pandemic in Oita City, Japan. We used a regression model that incorporated a time delay to analyse the daily data of school closure based on a time continuous susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model of infectious disease spread. The delay was due to the time-lag from transmission to case reporting. We simulated the number of students infected daily with and without school closure and evaluated the effectiveness.ResultsThe model with a 3-day delay from transmission to reporting yielded the best fit using R 2 (the coefficient of determination). This result suggests that the recommended period of school closure is more than 4 days. Moreover, the effect of school closure in the simulation of school closure showed the following: the number of infected students decreased by about 24% at its peak, and the number of cumulative infected students decreased by about 8.0%.ConclusionsSchool closure was an effective intervention for mitigating the spread of influenza and should be implemented for more than 4 days. School closure has a remarkable impact on decreasing the number of infected students at the peak, but it does not substantially decrease the total number of infected students.

show abstract

Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model

Abstract: Based on the simulation results, we recommend implementing TAP together with both school closure and restraint as strategies against a future novel influenza outbreak.

Cited by 11 publications

References 24 publications

The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies

The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

Substantial Impact of School Closure on the Transmission Dynamics during the Pandemic Flu H1N1-2009 in Oita, Japan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About