Assessment of China’s Mitigation Targets in an Effort-Sharing Framework

Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a core component for post-2020 global climate agreements to achieve the 2 • C goal in addressing climate change. In the NDC, China has declared to lower carbon intensity by 60-65% from the 2005 level by 2030 and achieve the peak of CO 2 emissions around 2030. In the context of the 2 • C goal, this study assesses China's CO 2 mitigation targets in the NDC using fair ranges of emissions allowances as calculated from an effort-sharing framework based on six equity principles (and cost-effectiveness). Results show that understanding the fairness of China's NDC would rely heavily on selected equity principles. If the 65% target is implemented, China's NDC would position within full ranges of emissions allowances and align with responsibility-capacity-need based on comparisons in 2030, and with responsibility-capacity-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions based on comparisons during 2011-2030. Implications of the NDC on China's long-term CO 2 mitigation targets beyond 2030 are also explored, which indicate that China's energy system would need to realize carbon neutrality by 2070s at the latest in the scenarios in this study.

A biased fairness assessment against developing countries

“…Information on the fairness of countries' NDCs will be one of the vital inputs to the GST, as well as the information required for the next-round submission of NDCs after 2025. Some studies have evaluated the fairness of current NDC targets submitted by major countries [4][5][6][7][8], but a series of articles by Robiou Du Pont et al [5,7,8] is undoubtedly the most controversial [9].…”

“…Recent articles by Robiou du Pont et al [3,4] suggest that the emissions reduction targets of developed countries are more ambitious than those of developing countries, and developed countries have made a more ''equitable" contribution than developing countries. In a recent study in Nature Communications [8], Robiou du Pont et al argued China's NDC would lead to over 5.1°C of global warming, thus not meeting the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement.…”

“…The answer depends on which ''equity principle" will be used to assess the fairness of China's NDC target. We used 23 different allocation schemes and different parameters settings to analyze the fairness of China's NDC [4]. The results indicate that the ''fair share" of China's cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2011 to 2050 is in the range of 168-420 GtCO 2 (quartiles 252-315 GtCO 2 , median 238 GtCO 2 ).…”