Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract. Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of eleven sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia.The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change.The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.

Land-Based Mitigation Strategies under the Mid-Term Carbon Reduction Targets in Indonesia

“…Next, Figure 4 shows the reduced emission in the agriculture and livestock management by 2030 with a share of countermeasures. Total reduced CH 4 and N 2 O emissions reached 47 MtCO 2 /year in 2030, which was a much smaller than that in the land use sector. High-efficiency fertilizer application (i.e., split fertilization) on cropland soils, water management in rice paddies and livestock' manure management contributed substantially to reducing emissions in the sectors.…”

“…The INDC [1] shows that Indonesia has taken significant steps to reduce emissions from these land use sectors by reducing deforestation and forest degradation and restoring ecosystem functions and sustainable forest management, including social forestry through active participation of the private sector, small and medium enterprises, civil society organizations, local communities and the most Several studies have addressed potential future land use mitigation efforts in the land use sector of Indonesia by examining several types of specific countermeasures. However, some of these studies used static methodologies based on marginal abatement cost curves [2][3][4][5] without considering changes in mitigation effects or countermeasure costs over time. In addition, other studies estimated historical GHG emissions from peat decomposition, peat fires and forest fires [6][7][8][9][10], but did not evaluate the mitigation potential and cost of peatland area and fires [11] in agriculture and land use sectors containing peatland, considering changes in mitigation effects and countermeasure costs over time.…”

Forest Carbon Leakage Quantification Methods and Their Suitability for Assessing Leakage in REDD

“…The main criteria for selection were that a quantitative method was presented, thus excluding qualitative and analytical approaches, and that carbon leakage was explicitly addressed. This resulted in a final list of eight quantitative leakage quantification methods, four addressing secondary leakage [18,[23][24][25] and four addressing primary leakage [26][27][28][29]. (Detailed bibliography and description in the Electronic Supplementary Information, ESI 1).…”

“…The peer-reviewed method by Boer et al [28] uses a logistic model to estimate the probability of a land use being converted to other uses. They use several predictor variables such as proximity to the project area, distance to transportation channel, area of agricultural land, employment situation, population density and income to establish probabilities of land use change.…”

Transport Biofuels: Their Characteristics, Production and Costs

“…In some cases, high levels of leakage have been demonstrated. For instance, Boer et al (2007) studied forestation projects in the Jambi province of Indonesia and found that reductions in C stock due to leakage exceeded gains in C stock linked to forestation over a 10-year period. Other forestation projects showed lower leakage, and worldwide, an average percentage of about 50% leakage seems to be associated with forestation projects (Sathaye and Andrasko 2007).…”