Assessment of Areal Land Losses Within the Coastal Zone of the Taganrog Bay

Abstract

The study is devoted to the assessment of areal losses of various types of land use in the coastal zone of the Taganrog Bay as a result of the manifestation of dangerous exogenous geological processes. The method of estimating the movement of the coastline using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5. add-on to the Esri ArcGIS Desktop 10.4-10.6. The superstructure allows you to calculate the statistics of the speed of its change from several historical positions of the coastline, based on the constructed sections (transects) perpendicular to the shore with a given step. Based on the calculated statistics, a forecast of the coastline is formed (for 10 or 20 years ahead) based on historical data on the location of the coastline. The construction of forecast horizons is performed using the Kalman filter to combine the observed positions of the coastline with the simulated positions to predict the future position of the coastline. The data sources were archival images of high and medium resolution satellite missions “Corona“, “Spot“, “Sentinel-2“. Based on the calculated abrasion rates for the northern coast of the Taganrog Bay from 1967 to 2020, and for the southern coast from 1971 to 2020, forecast horizons for 10 and 20 years ahead are formed and the areas of land with different types of land use falling into the expected collapse zone are calculated. The results obtained show that on the northern coast, the types of “wastelands“ and beaches are most susceptible to collapse, while on the southern coast, the main type falling under the collapse is arable land. A similar trend is typical for the entire coast as a whole.