Assessing the Trend in Rental Values of Commercial Properties  Along Oyemekun Road Akure, Nigeria

Iroham, C.O.

doi:10.24102/ijslup.v1i2.380

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…The implication from Karakozova (2005), Kiehela and Falkenbach (2014) and Ng and Higgins' (2007) is that single equation regression models can predict movements of rental values. The use of regression method to predict rental values has also been adopted by Nigerian based studies -for example by Iroham et al (2013) and .…”

Section: Forecasting Techniques In Commercial Property Performance Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There has been little focus on predicting the performance of investments based on their total returns. Oni (2009), for one, using a polynomial regression model, focuses on the forecasting of rental values of properties located along arterial roads in Ikeja; while Iroham et al (2013) investigate forecasting of property rental values in Akure using a simple linear regression method. Oni, Bello and Oni (2012), using the moving average method, concentrate on forecasting the demand for office spaces in Ikeja; while Udoekanem, Ighalo and Sanusi (2015) adopt a regression method in predicting the rent of offices in Abuja.…”

Section: Studies On Performance Of Direct Real Estate Investment In Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the international emphasis on forecasting for real estate outcomes, empirical studies on real estate investment and forecasting in Lagos remain limited. The Nigerian literature (Oni, 2009;Oni, Bello & Oni, 2012;Oyewole, 2013;Iroham et al, 2013;Emele, Okpaleke & Umeh, 2014; consider various perspectives on the performance and forecasting of real estate investment. However, few focus on the prediction of total returns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Performance of Commercial Property Investments in Lagos Metropolis

Umeh

Adilieme

2020

JARER

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Investors rely on statistical forecasts to guide their investment decisions. Given the relative opportunity cost associated with these decisions, and the huge financial implication of commercial property investments, such insights are invaluable; because investors can choose investments from an informed position. Despite this recognised benefit of forecasting, there has been little focus on forecasting the performance (total returns) of commercial property investments in Lagos Metropolis. This paper, therefore, aims to forecast the total returns of two commercial property investment types (shops and offices) in five sub-markets (Yaba, Ikeja, Ikoyi, Victoria Island and Lagos Island) within the Lagos property market. In doing so, the study uses longitudinal data for the capital and rental values of commercial property investments in Lagos between 2006 to 2018 alongside a simple regression model for 2019-2021 predicted total returns. Autocorrelation was used in testing the predictive validity of this data set. Furthermore, multiple-forecasts were evaluated simultaneously for accuracy and, together, they illustrate the difficulty of compiling a robust dataset in the absence of a central database. This paper suggests that the sampled total returns for the five sub-markets fluctuate and tend to decline as seen in the Ordinary Least Square Regression technique for 2019 to 2021. The results also suggest a low autocorrelation in most of the sub-markets, which indicates that the observed pattern of returns may not continue. This paper recommends that investors be wary of commercial property investment in Lagos Metropolis, due to the observed poor performance (low and fluctuating total returns). It is also recommended that a property database be constructed to improve property data reliability and allow for the application of complex quantitative forecasting techniques.

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Section: Forecasting Techniques In Commercial Property Performance Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Studies On Performance Of Direct Real Estate Investment In Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Performance of Commercial Property Investments in Lagos Metropolis

Umeh

Adilieme

2020

JARER

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“…Consequently, Nwuba [15] in Abuja, Nigeria observed an upward growth in rental value. Iroham, Oluwunmi, Simon and Akerele [16] reported a high rate of rental value increase in Akure, Nigeria. Chukwu, Aniagolu & Obodo [17] compared the rental trends in two neighbourhoods in Enugu, Nigeria, and found yearly upward increase in rental value.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Implication of Land-Use Policies on Property Rental Value Trend in Abuja

Ahmed¹,

DalhatuUmarSangari²,

Idris³

et al. 2019

JCEA

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Land-use policies and regulations are employed all over the world to control land usage. Relative to the type of regulations, these can have several impacts on the value of properties. However, the value of properties might increase or decrease depending on the type of measures that are yearly employed. Thus the objective of this study was to assess the implication of land use regulations on rental value trend in Abuja, Nigeria. The survey design was used to elicit relevant information from occupiers and Estate Surveying and Valuation firms in Abuja. Results were presented on tables, and an annual growth rate factor was used to assess the relative growth of rent within the three locations (Wuse, Maitama and Nyanya), studied. Results indicate a significant rise in the rental value of properties between 2008 and 2017. Thus, the planning authorities in Abuja should reconsider the kind of policies they implement within the study area to avoid abuse and unnecessary restrictions that affect the state of the environment and value.

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“…However, the few that ventured into value determinants of office real estate have mostly concentrated on the macroeconomic variables without giving attention to the micro variables. Among them are Udoekanem et al (2015a) whose study considered five macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product (GDP), inflationary rates, vacancy rates, monetary policy rates and employment rates in determining office rental variables in Abuja as well as Udoekanem et al (2014), Oyewole and Ajayi (2014) and Iroham et al (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An analysis of the determinants of office real estate price modelling in Nigeria: using a Delphi approach

Yakub

Achu

Ali

et al. 2022

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PurposeThere are a plethora of putative influencing variables available in the literature for modelling real estate prices using AI. Their choice tends to differ from one researcher to the other, consequently leading to subjectivity in the selection process. Thus, there is a need to seek the viewpoint of practitioners on the applicability and level of significance of these academically established variables.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Delphi technique, this study collated and structured the 35 underlying micro- and macroeconomic parameters derived from literature and eight variables suggested by 11 selected real estate experts. The experts ranked these variables in order of influence using a seven-point Likert scale with a reasonable consensus during the fourth round (Kendall's W = 0.7418).FindingsThe study discovered that 16 variables are very influential with seven being extremely influential. These extremely influential variables include flexibility, adaptability of design, accessibility to the building, the size of office spaces, quality of construction, state of repairs, expected capital growth and proximity to volatile areas.Practical implicationsThe results of this study improve the quality of data available to valuers towards a fortified price prediction for investors, and thereby, restoring the valuers' credibility and integrity.Originality/valueThe “volatility level of an area”, which was revealed as a distinct factor in the survey is used to add to current knowledge concerning office price. Hence, this study offers real estate practitioners and researchers valuable knowledge on the critical variables that must be considered in AI-based price modelling.

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Assessing the Trend in Rental Values of Commercial Properties Along Oyemekun Road Akure, Nigeria

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Forecasting Performance of Commercial Property Investments in Lagos Metropolis

Forecasting Performance of Commercial Property Investments in Lagos Metropolis

The Implication of Land-Use Policies on Property Rental Value Trend in Abuja

An analysis of the determinants of office real estate price modelling in Nigeria: using a Delphi approach

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