The 14 th AfRES ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2014 The 14 th AfRES ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2014 177 176 recommended that international real estate organizations and investors should collaborate with indigenous researchers, practitioners and the Nigerian real estate professional regulatory bodies in order to develop a sustainable market based forecasting framework.

Investors rely on statistical forecasts to guide their investment decisions. Given the relative opportunity cost associated with these decisions, and the huge financial implication of commercial property investments, such insights are invaluable; because investors can choose investments from an informed position. Despite this recognised benefit of forecasting, there has been little focus on forecasting the performance (total returns) of commercial property investments in Lagos Metropolis. This paper, therefore, aims to forecast the total returns of two commercial property investment types (shops and offices) in five sub-markets (Yaba, Ikeja, Ikoyi, Victoria Island and Lagos Island) within the Lagos property market. In doing so, the study uses longitudinal data for the capital and rental values of commercial property investments in Lagos between 2006 to 2018 alongside a simple regression model for 2019-2021 predicted total returns. Autocorrelation was used in testing the predictive validity of this data set. Furthermore, multiple-forecasts were evaluated simultaneously for accuracy and, together, they illustrate the difficulty of compiling a robust dataset in the absence of a central database. This paper suggests that the sampled total returns for the five sub-markets fluctuate and tend to decline as seen in the Ordinary Least Square Regression technique for 2019 to 2021. The results also suggest a low autocorrelation in most of the sub-markets, which indicates that the observed pattern of returns may not continue. This paper recommends that investors be wary of commercial property investment in Lagos Metropolis, due to the observed poor performance (low and fluctuating total returns). It is also recommended that a property database be constructed to improve property data reliability and allow for the application of complex quantitative forecasting techniques.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution of real estate to the performance of mixed-asset portfolio of Nigeria Pension Fund with a view to providing a guide on investment decision making for institutional investors and portfolio managers. Design/methodology/approach Data on capital value were collected from the quarterly and annual reports of Nigeria Pension Commission over a period of ten (2007–2016) years, and the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Findings The findings show that there is diversification benefit resulting from integrating real estate to other assets of the Nigeria Pension Fund, and that the fund’s portfolio performed better when real estate is integrated in the mixed-asset portfolio. Practical implications Investment portfolio managers can benefit from the findings of this study by making investment decisions that are performance-driven. The study will serve as a guide in making investment decisions on mixed-asset portfolio of institutional investors other than pension funds. Originality/value There is no known paper on the contribution of real estate in the performance of asset portfolio of the Nigeria Pension Fund.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify drivers of investment performance of commercial property in Lagos with a view to preventing a rule of thumb approach to investments’ decisions. Design/methodology/approach – Questions theoretically underpinned on factors influencing commercial property investment performance were designed and administered to 125 real estate practitioners in Lagos in order to weigh the factors influencing commercial property investment performance in five selected locations in Lagos. The responses were analyzed using the mean item score and the principal component analysis, and the most critical factors extracted. Findings – Individual sub-markets reveal top factors common to each location as cost of building materials, location, quality of road infrastructure, rental growth and security. Findings across sub-markets reveal three critical set of factors. Condition of the premises; the second theme is a mixture of socio-cultural and legal framework; the third is also a mixture of socio-cultural, political and economic factors. Their factor loading’s are: 0.851, 0.828 and 0.805, respectively. Practical implications – Investors, appraisers and property managers may benefit from the findings as they make better investment and management decisions. Also adopting modern construction methods will cut unnecessary cost incurred from wastage of building materials and open the door to private investors with limited capital. Originality/value – This paper is the first to capture five different locations in Lagos. It goes beyond the study of Thontteh and Omirin (2014) which covered only one location. Thus, this study tends to present more reliable findings.

The level of sensitivity of every investment option to a market index is crucial to investors. Sensitivity analysis of individual or a set of returns on investments to market return index predicts the reaction of the investment(s) to changes in the market index; informs investors of prospective performance of different investments types; as well as assists the investors in making appropriate decisions on investment selections. This paper assessed how sensitive indirect real estate investments in Nigeria were to market index. The three companies whose asset returns were considered in this study were real estate investment trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The data used in this study were sourced from annual reports of the listed companies, and reports of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The beta coefficients were used to determine the sensitivity of the selected stocks to market return index. The study found a very low and insignificant beta coefficient among various real estate investments and market return index. Hence, there is no relationship between the market return index and the returns on the Real Estate Investment Trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.