Assessing the risk of disease introduction in imports

Roberts, Helen; Carbon, Mia; Hartley, Matt; Sabirovic, M.

doi:10.1136/vr.d1784

Cited by 28 publications

(26 citation statements)

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“…IRAs undertaken by the US and Canadian authorities do not explicitly consider the volume or duration of trade. The UK government use a spreadsheet model (Roberts et al., ) for assessing the introduction of animal disease introduction in imports which assesses level of trade on a scale of 0–3, and has an additional score for the likelihood of illegal imports.…”

Section: Methodological Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis – a Review of Current Methods and Practice

Peeler

Reese

Thrush

2013

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Summary The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science‐based decision‐making.

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Section: Methodological Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis – a Review of Current Methods and Practice

Peeler

Reese

Thrush

2013

Transbound Emerg Dis

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“…The hazards identified could be released into England via the routes shown in Table 4 ( Roberts et al 2011).…”

Section: Release Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative veterinary risk assessment of the role of wild deer in the likelihood of incursion and the impact on effective disease control of selected exotic notifiable diseases in England

Hartley¹,

Voller

Murray

et al. 2012

Eur J Wildl Res

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A qualitative risk assessment was undertaken to analyse the likelihood of the incursion of selected exotic infectious disease into deer populations in GB and the potential impacts these animals could have on effective disease control. In order to identify the exposure pathways, it was necessary to consider not only the epidemiology of the pathogens but also to understand the impact of the ecology and behaviour of wild deer on disease transmission. It was concluded that the greatest risk of exotic disease incursion into wild deer in GB was disease incursions occurring in domestic ruminants first then transmitting to wild deer. The qualitative risk assessment considered geographic spread and habitats of wild deer and the susceptibility of wild deer to notifiable exotic diseases of domestic ruminants. Data of some diseases in some deer species is limited and the overall assessment of impact varied between diseases and deer species. Red deer pose the highest risk of the species reviewed. The overall risk assessment of low is primarily influenced by the low risk of incursion of exotic diseases generally into the UK.

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“…Finally, particular attention was given to the IDM risk of incursion tool (Roberts et al., ; EFSA, ). This ranks many exotic diseases (34 for the August 2017 revision) on the basis of their estimated probability of entry into the UK.…”

Section: Description Of Work Programmementioning

confidence: 99%

Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment

Condoleo¹,

Gale²,

Adkin³

et al. 2018

EFS2

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The EUFORA fellowship programme ‘Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment’ was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), a British governmental institution responsible for safeguarding animal and plant health in the UK. The working programme, which was organised into four different modules, covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment including identification of emerging risks, risk prioritisation methods, scanning surveillance, food production exposure assessment and import risk assessment of animal and human infectious diseases. Over the course of the year, the Fellow had the opportunity to work for international projects with experts in these disciplines. This allowed for significant opportunities to ‘learn‐by‐doing’ the methods and the techniques that are employed to assess animal health and food safety risks. Moreover, he consolidated his knowledge by attending several training courses and academic lessons, submitting scientific papers to peer‐reviewed journals and conferences, giving presentations and using modelling software.

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Assessing the risk of disease introduction in imports

Cited by 28 publications

References 0 publications

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis – a Review of Current Methods and Practice

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis – a Review of Current Methods and Practice

Qualitative veterinary risk assessment of the role of wild deer in the likelihood of incursion and the impact on effective disease control of selected exotic notifiable diseases in England

Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment

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