Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.
Aims: Produce an evidence‐based ranking of the major contributing factors and sources of Campylobacter occurrence in broilers produced in England, Scotland and Wales – Great Britain (GB).
Method and Results: Relevant data were extracted from 159 research papers and findings were grouped into 14 sources of on‐farm contamination and 37 contributing factors. A relevancy score was developed to take into account various measures from each study of applicability to GB broilers and strength of findings. Results indicate that major sources of Campylobacter include a depopulation event, another house on‐farm, on‐farm staff, and other animals on farm. The depopulation schedule (staggered slaughter) and multiple houses on‐farm were identified as contributing factors associated with increasing the risk, and those decreasing the risk were use of a hygiene barrier, parent company and certain seasons of rearing.
Conclusions: Although the review was more resource intensive compared to narrative studies, the system allows an increased level of transparency and the ability to investigate patterns and trends.
Significance and Impact of the Study: This paper provides the first evidence‐based ranking of the major sources and contributing factors for Campylobacter presence in broilers in GB using a systematic review.
The number of West Nile virus (WNV)-infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNVinfected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNVcompetent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans.
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