Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake

Hu, Shanshan; Liu, Changming; Zheng, Hua; Wang, Zhonggen; Yu, Jingjie

doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9

Cited by 90 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Runoff (R) can be expressed as a function of climate variables (C) and other characteristics (H ) (Hu et al, 2012):…”

Section: Original Climate Elasticity Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The GBHM simulation and climate elasticity model showed that climate change accounts for about 55 and 51 % of the reservoir inflow reduction, respectively. Hu et al (2012) analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on the Baiyangdian upstream runoff, using two assessment methodologies (climate elasticity and hydrological modeling). The climate elasticity method was implemented at the annual scale and was computationally relatively simple; it needed fewer data and parameters to calculate the impacts of climate change on annual runoff.…”

Section: S Zhan Et Al: Runoff Changes In the Wei River Basin Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China

Zhan

Jiang

Sun

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Surface runoff from the Wei River basin, the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China, has dramatically decreased over last 51 years from 1958 to 2008. Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the decrease in runoff. The study period is split into two sub-periods (1958-1989 and 1990-2008) using the Mann-Kendall jump test. This study develops an improved climate elasticity method based on the original climate elasticity method, and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff decrease in the Wei River basin. The results from the original climate elasticity method show that climatic impacts contribute 37-40 % to the decrease in runoff, while human impacts contribute 60-63 %. In contrast, the results from the improved climate elasticity method yield a climatic contribution to runoff decrease of 22-29 % and a human contribution of 71-78 %. A discussion of the simulation reliability and uncertainty concludes that the improved climate elasticity method has a better mechanism and can provide more reasonable results.

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“…Runoff (R) can be expressed as a function of climate variables (C) and other characteristics (H ) (Hu et al, 2012):…”

Section: Original Climate Elasticity Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S Zhan Et Al: Runoff Changes In the Wei River Basin Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China

Zhan

Jiang

Sun

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…So far, land surface hydrological models have been successfully implemented at both regional (e.g., Maurer et al, 2002;Yang et al, 2004;Tang et al, 2007Tang et al, , 2008Hu et al, 2012;Zhang et al, 2014) and global scales (e.g., Wood, 2007, 2008;Haddeland et al, 2011;Pan et al, 2012). With the aid of real-time meteorological forcings, many model-based hydrological monitoring practices have been conducted to support a real-time flood/drought diagnosis.…”

Section: Hydrological Monitoring Observations and Data Assimilationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: Progress and perspectives

et al. 2016

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Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.

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“…Without these data, models are difficult to calibrate. In comparison, some statistical methods such as trend analysis method, sensitivity-based approach and the elasticity method [51][52][53][54][55] can be used to quantify the effects of climatic variability first and then estimate the influence of forest or land cover change from the total variations. Those estimations can be done without long-term data on forest or land cover changes.…”

Section: Tomer-schilling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, both climate elasticity and hydrological modeling methods were applied to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities in Baiyangdian Basin [52]. Using the climate elasticity method, the results indicated that climate variations accounted for 40% of decrease in streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%.…”

Section: Research Progressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relative Contributions of Forest Change and Climatic Variability to Hydrology in Large Watersheds: A Critical Review of Research Methods

Wei

Liu

Zhou

2013

Water

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Forest change and climatic variability are two major drivers for influencing change in watershed hydrology in forest-dominated watersheds. Quantifying their relative contributions is important to fully understand their individual effects. This review paper summarizes the progress on quantifying the relative contributions of forest or land cover change and climatic variability to hydrology in large watersheds using available case studies. It compared pros and cons of various research methods, identified research challenges and proposed future research priorities. Our synthesis shows that the relative hydrological effects of forest changes and climatic variability are largely dependent on their own change magnitudes and watershed characteristics. In some severely disturbed watersheds, impacts of forest changes or land use changes can be as important as those from climatic variability. This paper provides a brief review on eight selected research methods for this type of research. Because each method or technique has its own strengths and weaknesses, combining two or more methods is a more robust approach than using any single method alone. Future research priorities include conducting more case studies, refining research methods, and considering mechanism-based research using landscape ecology and geochemistry approaches. OPEN ACCESSWater 2013, 5 729

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Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake

Cited by 90 publications

References 13 publications

Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China

Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: Progress and perspectives

Quantifying the Relative Contributions of Forest Change and Climatic Variability to Hydrology in Large Watersheds: A Critical Review of Research Methods

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