Assessing the impact of temperature and humidity exposures during early infection stages on case-fatality of COVID-19: A modelling study in Europe

Liang, Jingbo; Yuan, Hsiang‐Yu

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.112931

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…It is important to note that since the pandemic started, many authors have analyzed the issue of impact of many factors (weather conditions, air pollution and etc.) on COVID-19 incidence, severity, and mortality, and literature linking to this issue has increased exponentially and now hundreds studies show the different results (see related revies in (Kang et al, 2021; Prévost et al, 2021; Liang & Yuan, 2022; Mandal et al, 2022; McClymont & Hu, 2021; Mejdoubi et al, 2020; Runkle et al, 2020; To et al, 2021; Tripathi et al, 2022; Xie & Zhu, 2020; Carballo et al, 2022; Culqui et al, 2022; Ishmatov, 2022; Kang et al, 2021; Perone, 2022; Taylor et al, 2022)). Most of the studies are statistical and analyze the correlation between various influencing factors.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is worth noting that today there are many studies of the correlation of weather factors and air temperature with COVID-19 in many countries and cities. Most of them agree that air temperature affects COVID-19 and authors describe some possible effects of air temperature on COVID-19 disease severity and transmission rates (see related reviews in (Kang et al, 2021; Prévost et al, 2021; Liang & Yuan, 2022; Mandal et al, 2022; McClymont & Hu, 2021; Mejdoubi et al, 2020; Runkle et al, 2020; Tripathi et al, 2022).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanistic view on the influence of fluctuations in outdoor temperature on the worsening of the course of the disease and hospitalizations associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in 2022 in the Tomsk region, Russia

Ishmatov

Bart

Yakovlev

2023

Preprint

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It is well known that low air temperatures negatively affect the human respiratory system and can suppress protective mechanisms in airways epithelial cells. In this study, we put forward the hypothesis that the compromised airway epithelium of infected persons can be extremely sensitive to external influences and therefore can be used as an indicator and serve to investigate the impact of low air temperatures (as and other external factors) on the respiratory system. Here we supposed that a short-term impact of drop in outdoor temperature on the compromised airway epithelium should lead to increased symptoms and severity of the disease. We have analyzed a short-term impact of the air temperature drop on the worsening of disease in patients with COVID-19 (indicated by bursts of daily hospitalizations), which fell on the main epidemic wave in 2022 associated with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. It was found that even a small and/or short-term impact of drop in outdoor daily temperatures can lead to increased symptoms and severity of the disease (COVID-19). We have identified 14 characteristic points (days) where the temperature drop was more than 3 degrees during the main pandemic wave in 2022. It was shown that each characteristic points clearly associated with characteristic bursts in the number of daily hospitalizations with a time lag of 1-2 days. Thus, it was found that the results of the study can be used in predicting a sudden increase in the number of hospitalizations, which can be used to timely warn clinics and medical hospitals for an increase in the number of seriously ill patients. The findings can be used to improve systems to prevent additional risks connected with impact of drop in air temperature on worsening disease in patients and infected people who do not have or have mild or subtle symptoms of the disease - especially during an epidemic or pandemic wave.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanistic view on the influence of fluctuations in outdoor temperature on the worsening of the course of the disease and hospitalizations associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in 2022 in the Tomsk region, Russia

Ishmatov

Bart

Yakovlev

2023

Preprint

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“…The results suggest that a specific range of temperature (e.g., between 8-11 ‫ל‬ ‫)ܥ‬ could increase the risk of COVID-19 death when patients were exposed to them after the incubation period. One possible reason is that exposure to cold temperature during these periods might deteriorate or influence COVID-19 patients' immune responses (Liang and Yuan 2022;Schultze and Aschenbrenner 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to estimate the probability of newly confirmed infected cases who die later due to the infections on a given day, instantaneous case fatality rate (iCFR) was used (Liang and Yuan 2022). One way to calculate iCFR is through a non-parametric back-projection approach to retrospectively adjust the time of death cases (Becker et al 1991).…”

Section: Back-projection Of Covid-19 Deaths and Estimation Of Instant...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, the duration between case confirmation and death (time to death) was taken to be ‫ݐ‬ ଷ ൌ 7.92 days. These values were estimated in our recent study (Liang and Yuan 2022). Given the time to death follows a gamma distribution, with a mean of ‫ݐ‬ ଷ ൌ 7.92 days, we retrospectively calculated the actual number of deaths, (‫ܦ‬Ԣ), which were likely to be members of confirmed cases using an R function backprojNP (Meyer et al 2017).…”

Section: Back-projection Of Covid-19 Deaths and Estimation Of Instant...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Association between PM2.5 air pollution, temperature, and sunlight during different infectious stages with the case fatality of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom: a modeling study

Hossain

Zhou

Leung

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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Although the relationship between the environmental factors such as weather conditions and air pollution and COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) has been found, the impacts of these factors to which infected cases are exposed at different infectious stages (e.g., virus exposure time, incubation period, and at or after symptom onset) are still unknown. Understanding this link can help reduce mortality rates. During the first wave of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK), the CFR varied widely between and among the four countries of the UK, allowing such differential impacts to be assessed. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model combined with distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the odds ratio of the weather factors (i.e., temperature, sunlight, relative humidity, and rainfall) and air pollution (i.e., ozone, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10and PM2.5) using data between March 26, 2020 and May 12, 2020 in the UK. After retrospectively time adjusted CFR was estimated using back-projection technique, the stepwise model selection method was used to choose the best model based on Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the closeness between the predicted and observed values of CFR. We found that the low temperature (8-11∘ C), prolonged sunlight duration (11-13hours) and increased PM2.5(11-18μg/m3) after the incubation period posed a greater risk of death (measured by odds ratio (OR)) than the earlier infectious stages. The risk reached its maximum level when the low temperature occurred one day after (OR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.10-2.81), prolonged sunlight duration 2-3 days after (OR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.03-2.18) and increased PM2.5at the onset of symptom (OR =1.72; 95% CI: 1.30-2.26). In contrast, prolonged sunlight duration showed a protective effect during the incubation period or earlier. After reopening, many COVID-19 cases will be identified after their symptoms appear. The findings highlight the importance of designing different preventive measures against severe illness or death considering the time before and after symptom onset.

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Association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A time-stratified case-crossover study

Wang

Lyu

Tong

et al. 2023

Environmental Research

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Assessing the impact of temperature and humidity exposures during early infection stages on case-fatality of COVID-19: A modelling study in Europe

Cited by 8 publications

References 40 publications

Mechanistic view on the influence of fluctuations in outdoor temperature on the worsening of the course of the disease and hospitalizations associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in 2022 in the Tomsk region, Russia

Mechanistic view on the influence of fluctuations in outdoor temperature on the worsening of the course of the disease and hospitalizations associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in 2022 in the Tomsk region, Russia

Association between PM2.5 air pollution, temperature, and sunlight during different infectious stages with the case fatality of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom: a modeling study

Association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A time-stratified case-crossover study

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