The paper describes the mathematical formulation and numerical method of the TSUNM3 high-resolution mesoscale meteorological model being developed at Tomsk State University. The model is nonhydrostatic and includes three-dimensional nonstationary equations of hydrothermodynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer with parameterization of turbulence, moisture microphysics, long-wave and short-wave (solar) radiation, and advective and latent heat flows in the atmosphere and at the boundary of its interaction with the underlying surface. The numerical algorithm is constructed using structured grids with uniform spacing in horizontal directions and condensing to the Earth surface in the vertical direction. When approximating the differential formulation of the problem, the finite volume method with the second order approximation in the spatial variables is used. Explicit-implicit approximations in time (Adams–Bashforth and Crank–Nicolson) are used to achieve second-order accuracy in time. The paper presents results of numerical forecasting of the main meteorological parameters of the atmosphere (temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction) and precipitation in different seasons in the Siberian region. The models were tested with the help of observations obtained using the Volna-4M sodar, MTR-5 temperature profile meter, and Meteo-2 ultrasonic weather stations of the Atmosfera Collective Use Center. The improved TSUNM3 model is shown to adequately reflect the precipitation time and intensity. However, in some cases, the times of its beginning and end do not always coincide, the difference can reach several hours. The precipitation phase state is reflected reliably. Over 70% of precipitation cases are confirmed by numerical calculations. The model satisfactorily predicts temperature and humidity characteristics. The quality of the precipitation forecast model is comparable to the modern mesoscale models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
The results of a preliminary analysis of the relationship between the short-term impact of air pollution exposure on hospitalizations associated with COVID-19 in Tomsk, Russia are presented. The statistical data on air pollution and COVID-19 associated hospitalization were collected and analyzed for the period from March 16, 2022 to April 14, 2022. This period corresponds to a flat plateau of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the main pandemic wave in 2022 in Tomsk and the Tomsk region which were associated with omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2. It was found that all representative peaks in a graph of daily hospitalizations coincide with the peaks in graphs of measured levels of air pollution. The increase in hospitalizations occurred on the same days when air pollution levels increased, or with a slight lag of 1-2 days. This allows us to tentatively conclude that air pollution has a quick effect on infected persons and may provoke an increase in symptoms and severity of the disease. Further detailed research is required.
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