Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

Zhang, Shu; Chen, Wenying

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27671-0

Cited by 223 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such a framework is the Swiss TIMES Energy systems Model (STEM) 20 , with rich techno-economic details and sectoral interdependencies supported by state-of-the-art technology assessment. While TIMES-based frameworks are widely used for assessing decarbonisation pathways [21][22][23] , STEM includes unique features identi ed as important in literature when assessing the energy transition 19 : long-time horizon, high temporal resolution, consumer segmentation, grids topology, unit commitment, energy and ancillary services markets, demand shifts, variability of renewables representation, age structures of assets, endogenous load and demand curves.The work was performed within the joint activity of eight large collaborative energy research programmes of major Swiss universities, the Swiss Competence Centres for Energy Research (SCCERs), during 2013-2020. In this work, STEM was coupled with several sector-speci c models, e.g., for buildings, grids and industry.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios for Switzerland

Panos

Kannan

Hirschberg

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Switzerland has one of the lowest CO2 intensities among industrialised countries. The transition to net-zero emissions is further complicated by limited domestic mitigation options, which tend to have high costs, raise energy security concerns, and trigger socio-economic barriers in policy implementation. Research on these issues is also relevant to the societal and political debates on country energy transitions worldwide. We apply robust techno-economic energy systems modelling to highlight the challenges of the Swiss energy transition under different technical, socio-economic, and geopolitical contexts and suggest feasible technical solutions based on low-carbon technologies, efficiency, and flexibility. Import independency and net-zero emissions by 2050 require an additional cumulative discounted investment of 300 BCHF2019 in energy efficiency, domestic renewable and hydrogen technologies. The average per capita costs of net-zero emissions are 320–1390 CHF2019/yr., depending on domestic mitigation options exploitation, integration of Switzerland in international energy markets, energy security and resilience ambition.

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Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios for Switzerland

Panos

Kannan

Hirschberg

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Поскольку на долю энергетического сектора Китая приходится около 50 % выбросов CO 2 , создание низкоуглеродной системы выработки электроэнергии должно сыграть важную роль в достижении целей углеродной нейтральности. Технологические прорывы, изменения моделей производства и потребления безотлагательно необходимы для достижения углеродной нейтральности [Zhang and Chen, 2022].…”

Section: энергетические проблемы кнр вызванные амбициозными планами п...unclassified

East and West: global challenges to achieving carbon neutrality

Belikova

Belikov²

2022

Upravlenie

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The aim of the study is to determine the factors of occurrence and reasons for growth of the energy crisis in the context of the transition to carbon and climate neutrality of European Union’s countries, People’s Republic of China. The energy problems that have arisen in the economy on the way to reducing the indicators of anthropogenic impact on climate change and provoked the energy crisis of the 2021 second half and is currently ongoing in the European Union countries and China were analysed. The main objective of the research is to study the mechanism of cross-border carbon regulation aimed at protecting European producers from environmental dumping and designed to reduce the risks of migration of carbon-intensive industries to countries with a less stringent climate policy. The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to identify steps to modernise the energy sector of the economies of countries that are just embarking on the path of carbon neutrality in order to prevent such energy crises. The results of the study can be used in the formation and adaptation of energy transition strategies for all states and subnational associations that have attempted to achieve carbon neutrality. When reviewing and correcting climate initiatives, a strategy to form a reserve of reliable and cost-effective basic generating capacities has been proposed.

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“…The best and only approach to, while ensuring sufficient power, reduce the emissions is energy transition, defined here as shifting the energy sector from fossil-based production and consumption systems to renewable energy sources [17,18]. Currently, China is enthusiastically promoting zero-emission green energy, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, to replace coal power to reduce emissions.…”

Section: Introduction 1background On Carbon Neutrality and China's Co...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a Carbon-Neutral State: A Carbon–Energy–Water Nexus Perspective of China’s Coal Power Industry

Xie

Qi²,

Zhang³

et al. 2022

Energies

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Carbon neutrality is one of the most important goals for the Chinese government to mitigate climate change. Coal has long been China’s dominant energy source and accounts for more than 70–80% of its carbon emissions. Reducing the share of coal power supply and increasing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in coal power plants are the two primary efforts to reduce carbon emissions in China. However, even as energy and water consumed in CCUS are offset by reduced energy consumption from green energy transitions, there may be tradeoffs from the carbon–energy–water (CEW) nexus perspective. This paper developed a metric and tool known as the “Assessment Tool for Portfolios of Coal power production under Carbon neutral goals” (ATPCC) to evaluate the tradeoffs in China’s coal power industry from both the CEW nexus and financial profits perspectives. While most CEW nexus frameworks and practical tools focus on the CEW nexus perturbation from either an external factor or one sector from CEW, ATPCC considers the coupling effect from C(Carbon) and E(Energy) in the CEW nexus when integrating two main carbon mitigation policies. ATPCC also provides an essential systematic life cycle CEW nexus assessment tool for China’s coal power industry under carbon-neutral constraints. By applying ATPCC across different Chinese coal industry development portfolios, we illustrated potential strategies to reach a zero-emission electricity industry fueled by coal. When considering the sustainability of China’s coal industry in the future, we further demonstrate that reduced water and energy consumption results from the energy transition are not enough to offset the extra water and energy consumption in the rapid adoption of CCUS efforts. However, we acknowledge that the increased energy and water consumption is not a direct correlation to CCUS application growth nor a direct negative correlation to carbon emissions. The dual effort to implement CCUS and reduce electricity generation from coal needs a thorough understanding and concise strategy. We found that economic loss resulting from coal reduction can be compensated by the carbon market. Carbon trading has the potential to be the dominant profit-making source for China’s coal power industry. Additionally, the financial profits in China’s coal power industry are not negatively correlated to carbon emissions. Balance between the carbon market and the coal industry would lead to more economic revenues. The scenario with the most rapid reduction in coal power production combined with CCUS would be more sustainable from the CEW nexus perspective. However, when economic revenues are considered, the scenario with a moderately paced energy transition and CCUS effort would be more sustainable. Nevertheless, the ATPCC allows one to customize coal production scenarios according to the desired electricity production and emission reduction, thus making it appropriate not only for use in China but also in other coal-powered regions that face high-energy demands and carbon neutrality goals.

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Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

Cited by 223 publications

References 47 publications

Net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios for Switzerland

Net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios for Switzerland

East and West: global challenges to achieving carbon neutrality

Toward a Carbon-Neutral State: A Carbon–Energy–Water Nexus Perspective of China’s Coal Power Industry

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