Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola

Espinoza, Baltazar; Moreno, V.M.; Bichara, Derdei; Castillo‐Chavez, Carlos

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_9

Cited by 18 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…(ii) The incorporation of the transmission in health care centers in which medical staff can be infected as well [58]. (iii) The incorporation of patches to account for the internationalization of EVD as it is the case in Western Africa [13,23,31]. (iv) The modeling of multi-species transmission mechanism in the case where the same region is threaten by more than one Ebola virus strain.…”

Section: Equilibriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling ebola virus disease transmissions with reservoir in a complex virus life ecology

Tsanou

Bowong

Lubuma

et al. 2017

MBE

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We propose a new deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in a complex Ebola virus life ecology. Our model captures as much as possible the features and patterns of the disease evolution as a three cycle transmission process in the two ways below. Firstly it involves the synergy between the epizootic phase (during which the disease circulates periodically amongst non-human primates populations and decimates them), the enzootic phase (during which the disease always remains in fruit bats population) and the epidemic phase (during which the EVD threatens and decimates human populations). Secondly it takes into account the well-known, the probable/suspected and the hypothetical transmission mechanisms (including direct and indirect routes of contamination) between and within the three different types of populations consisting of humans, animals and fruit bats. The reproduction number R0 for the full model with the environmental contamination is derived and the global asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium is established when R0andlt;1. It is conjectured that there exists a unique globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium for the full model when R0andgt;1. The role of a contaminated environment is assessed by comparing the human infected component for the sub-model without the environment with that of the full model. Similarly, the sub-model without animals on the one hand and the sub-model without bats on the other hand are studied. It is shown that bats influence more the dynamics of EVD than the animals. Global sensitivity analysis shows that the effective contact rate between humans and fruit bats and the mortality rate for bats are the most influential parameters on the latent and infected human individuals. Numerical simulations, apart from supporting the theoretical results and the existence of a unique globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium for the full model, suggest further that: (1) fruit bats are more important in the transmission processes and the endemicity level of EVD than animals. This is in line with biological findings which identified bats as reservoir of Ebola viruses; (2) the indirect environmental contamination is detrimental to human beings, while it is almost insignificant for the transmission in bats.

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Section: Equilibriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling ebola virus disease transmissions with reservoir in a complex virus life ecology

Tsanou

Bowong

Lubuma

et al. 2017

MBE

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“…It is only towards the end of 2015 that modellers, realizing that the outbreak was predicted to persist for several months should nothing be done to stop it [35], started incorporating the demographic dynamics in their works [1,19]. Secondly, the Western Africa outbreak also distinguished itself by its internationalization which resulted in the development of meta-population models [14,19]. Similarly to the works proposed in the Central Africa case, there has been a great deal on the estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0 for most of the models studied from 2014, as summarized in Table 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple mathematical model for Ebola in Africa

Berge

Lubuma

Moremedi

et al. 2016

Journal of Biological Dynamics

133

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We deal with the following question: Can the consumption of contaminated bush meat, the funeral practices and the environmental contamination explain the recurrence and persistence of Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Africa? We develop an SIR-type model which, incorporates both the direct and indirect transmissions in such a manner that there is a provision of Ebola viruses. We prove that the full model has one (endemic) equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable whereas, it is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of the Ebola virus shedding in the environment. For the sub-model without the provision of Ebola viruses, the disease dies out or stabilizes globally at an endemic equilibrium. At the endemic level, the number of infectious is larger for the full model than for the sub-model without provision of Ebola viruses. We design a nonstandard finite difference scheme, which preserves the dynamics of the model. Numerical simulations are provided.

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“…The limitations of the role of technology in the absence of the public health infrastructure –there is no silver bullet– has been recently addressed in the context of Ebola (( Chowell et al., 2015 , Yong et al., 2016 )) with applications of the Lagrangian approach as presented here in the context of communicable and vector born diseases, including dengue, tuberculosis and Ebola, in settings where health disparities are pervasive (( Bichara et al., 2016 , Espinoza et al., 2016 , p. pp.123)). Further, the use of simplified models, quite often tends to over-estimate the impact of an outbreak (see ( Nishiura et al., 2009 , Nishiura et al., 2011 )) and the model and scenarios used highlight the limitations on the use of simplified settings when the goal is to capture or mimic the dynamics of specific systems–not the goal of this manuscript.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Resource limited and poor nations face challenges that make the use of standard efforts and approaches aimed at controlling vector borne diseases ineffective due to extreme variations in the levels of public safety, gang violence and conflict. A lack of attention to the threats posed by the weakest links in the global spread of diseases poses a serious threat to global health policies (see ( Castillo-Chavez et al., 2015 , Chowell et al., 2015 , Espinoza et al., 2016 , p. pp.123; Patterson-Lomba et al., 2015 , Patterson-Lomba et al., 2016 , p. pp.1011; Perrings et al., 2014 , Zhao et al., 2014 )). The importance of focusing on the weakest links of global transmission networks becomes obvious when the levels of violence in Latin America and the Caribbean, which houses 9% of the global population but accounts for 33% of the world's homicides ( Jaitman, 2015 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

Moreno

Espinoza

Bichara

et al. 2017

Infectious Disease Modelling

Self Cite

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In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of repellents. Further, in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil, the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was stressed. In this paper, we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty, crime and violence. Specifically, the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV outbreaks. We make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility, within highly distinct environments, may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but everywhere. Outcomes depend on existing mobility patterns, levels of disease risk, and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas, particularly in those where violence is systemic. The results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of mobility. It quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of heterogeneity. The number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations.

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Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola

Cited by 18 publications

References 30 publications

Modeling ebola virus disease transmissions with reservoir in a complex virus life ecology

Modeling ebola virus disease transmissions with reservoir in a complex virus life ecology

A simple mathematical model for Ebola in Africa

Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

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