Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

Abstract

In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of repellents. Further, in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil, the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was stressed. In this paper, we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty, crime and violence. Specifically, the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV outbreaks. We make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility, within highly distinct environments, may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but everywhere. Outcomes depend on existing mobility patterns, levels of disease risk, and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas, particularly in those where violence is systemic. The results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of mobility. It quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of heterogeneity. The number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

“…An approximation of the basic reproductive number was obtained using maximum likelihood methods. Finally, a study of the impact of short term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus is analyzed in [27]. The model formulated within [27] does distinguish between asymptomatic and symptomatic infected populations, and focuses on the estimation of the reproductive number between two close communities.…”

Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus Infection with Combined Vaccination and Treatment Interventions

“…In their work, they considered only treatment as a control measure in a single infectious compartment to model the trans-mission dynamics. A similar work can be traced to [10] who extended the work by [6]. In their extension, [10] treated Zika virus infection to be a vector-borne infection alone, and considered infection with Zika virus to be either symptomtic or asymptomatic and divided the infectious compartment accordingly.…”

“…A similar work can be traced to [10] who extended the work by [6]. In their extension, [10] treated Zika virus infection to be a vector-borne infection alone, and considered infection with Zika virus to be either symptomtic or asymptomatic and divided the infectious compartment accordingly. A similar mathematical model for the dynamics of Zika virus in the presence of a vector was developed by [11].…”

A Fractional‐Order Model for Zika Virus Infection with Multiple Delays

“…e authors in [27] investigated the dynamics of Ebola virus with time delay and fractional order and reported that combination of time delay and fractional order can effectively enrich the dynamics and strengthen the stability condition of the infection model. Analysis and dynamics of Zika transmission have been examined by many researchers (see, e.g., [3,28,29]. In [3], a mathematical model for transmission of Zika virus has been proposed with control measures of Zika virus.…”