Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xiaowei; Xu, Yulong; Wang, Zhaoli

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.002

Cited by 71 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Streamflow modeling plays an important role in many practical hydrological problems (Sorooshian & Chu, ), such as water‐related hazards forecasting (Wang et al, ), water resource management (Liu et al, ; Zheng et al, ), and management of ecosystem services (Wenger et al, ). Additionally, evidence from recent years has shown that the issue of global warming is becoming more serious in nature (IPCC, ; Niraula et al, ), and there is a need to use regional hydrological modeling tools to identify changes in the magnitude and timing of associated hydrological processes (Niraula et al, ; Ran et al, ; Wang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis‐Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China

Gou

Miao

Duan

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

128

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Model parameter calibration is a fundamentally important stage that must be completed before applying a model to address practical problems. In this study, we describe an automatic calibration framework that combines sensitivity analysis (SA) and an adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (ASMO) algorithm. We use this framework to calibrate catchment-specific sensitive parameters for streamflow simulation in the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with a 0.25°spatial resolution over 10 major river basins of China from 1960 to 1979. We found that three parameters-the infiltration parameter (B) and two of the soil depth parameters (D 1 , D 2 )-are highly sensitive in most basins, while other parameter sensitivities are strongly related to the dynamic environment of the basin. Compared with directly calibrating the seven parameters recommended for the default calibration procedure, our framework not only reduced the computing time by two thirds through opting out of insensitive parameters (type I error) but also improved the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) for optimized results when it identified a missing sensitive parameter (type II error) in the case study river basins. Results show that the SA-based ASMO framework is an effective and efficient model-optimization technique for matching simulated streamflow with observations across China. The NSE for monthly streamflow ranged from 0.75 to 0.97 and from 0.71 to 0.97 during the validation and calibration periods, respectively. The calibrated parameters can be applied directly in streamflow simulations across China, and the proposed calibration framework holds important implications for relevant simulation studies in other regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis‐Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China

Gou

Miao

Duan

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

128

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“…Instead of increasing the size and number of reservoirs, few studies optimized the operation rule curves of existing reservoirs to adapt to future drought (SSARR RHM; Eum & Simonovic, 2010), water allocation (VIC GHM; Liu et al, 2018), water supply (Hybrid wavelet-M5 model; Nourani, Rouzegari, Molajou, & Baghanam, 2020), etc. However, the use of optimized rule curves partly mitigated the climate change effects in terms of the water supply failure, irrigation water deficit, and drought damage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Gopalan

Hanasaki

Champathong

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.

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“…Danjiangkou Reservoir is the boundary of the upper and mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River basin, and the water is fed directly to the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project [24]. As the outflow of the upper region is the inflow of Danjiangkou Reservoir, the water availability in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River basin is directly impacted by the transfer projects and the reservoir's operation.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects on Optimal Water Resources Allocation in the Hanjiang River Basin, China

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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Inter-basin water transfer project is an effective engineering countermeasure to alleviate the pressure of water supply in water-deficient areas and balance the uneven distribution of water resources. To assess the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on optimal water resources allocation, an integrated water resources management framework is proposed, and is applied to the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Firstly, future water demands are analyzed as inputs. Then, a multi-objective water resources allocation model is formulated mitigating the negative impacts of water transfer projects on downstream water quantity and quality by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Finally, the indicators of water supply reliability, vulnerability and resilience are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: (1) the reliability and resilience of the water donor system will be gradually reduced while the vulnerability will be increased with the expansion of water transfer projects and the increase of water demand, (2) water supply risk is likely to increase in all zones (because zones at the boundary cannot obtain sufficient water due to limitations of local inflow and reservoir operation, while the amount of water available in the zones along the mainstream river is directly decreased by the water transfer projects), (3) more water supply measures and compensation measures will need to be implemented in the water donor areas. The framework proposed in this study to evaluate the comprehensive impact of inter-basin water transfer projects is conducive to water resources management. mitigating the uneven distribution of water resources and balancing the inter-basin water resource development [6,7]. Many large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects have been implemented and planned in China, transferring part of the water from water-abundant basins to water-deficient basins, such as the Yellow River Project [8] and the East, Middle and West Route for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project [9][10][11]. The implementation of these water transfer projects involves complex water diversion works, long tunnel construction, large-scale water pumping, and reservoir operation. Their impacts on socio-economic and environmental systems are so great that they cause widespread concern in society. As well as playing an important supporting and safeguarding role in promoting economic and social development in the water receiving areas, any inter-basin water transfer system can also have complex physical, chemical, hydrological and biological implications for both the donor and receiving areas [12,13]. Undoubtedly, it is very important to thoroughly assess the potential impacts of the proposed water transfer projects.Substantial studies have assessed the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects implemented across the world [14]. However, most of these studies emphasize the impacts on biodiversity conservation [1...

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Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

Cited by 71 publications

References 60 publications

Sensitivity Analysis‐Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China

Sensitivity Analysis‐Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Impacts of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects on Optimal Water Resources Allocation in the Hanjiang River Basin, China

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