Assessing spatiotemporal relationships between wildfire and mountain pine beetle disturbances across multiple time lags

Nelson, Michael F.; Ciochina, Mark; Bone, Christopher

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1482

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Our results differ from previous studies that found weak or no connection between MPB attack and fire characteristics in the Western United States (e.g., Hart et al, 2015; Harvey et al, 2014; Kulakowski & Veblen, 2007; Meigs et al, 2015; Mietkiewicz & Kulakowski, 2016; Nelson et al, 2016) and in a sub‐boreal forest in BC (e.g., Talucci et al, 2022; Talucci & Krawchuk, 2019). Only a few studies suggested a potential increase in crown fire in a post‐MPB fuel bed (Perrakis et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on large fires in British Columbia

Woo,

Bone,

Nadeem

et al. 2024

Ecosphere

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A key uncertainty in understanding climate change effects on wildfires in western North America is the role of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks in driving wildfire occurrence and severity. In this study, we investigated the complex relationship between MPB outbreaks, other environmental factors, and wildfire occurrence in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We adopted a fire risk analysis method developed for fire occurrence prediction to separate the effect of changing fuel conditions on wildfires in BC when neither post‐outbreak fuel conditions, climate, nor management is stationary. Using lasso‐logistic regression and a novel variable ranking procedure, we determined that MPB‐affected areas had 1.7 times more large lightning‐caused fires (≥100 ha), as the likelihood of large lightning‐caused fires increased by 40% in these areas and likely contributed to the increased burned areas in BC. Meanwhile, the likelihood of large human‐caused fires decreased in MPB‐affected areas. Fire weather factors were most influential for both lightning‐ and human‐caused fires, while anthropogenic factors were most influential for human‐caused fires. Fuel dynamics following MPB outbreaks vary across the wide distribution of a host species such as lodgepole pine, at stand and landscape levels. Furthermore, the expression of the effects of MPB and other disturbances on wildfire is also conditional on, as well as confounded with, many other environmental factors and management activities that vary across western North America. Therefore, a lack of consensus on the impacts of MPB on wildfire is not surprising.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on large fires in British Columbia

Woo,

Bone,

Nadeem

et al. 2024

Ecosphere

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“…While some studies have found increases in fire extent and severity following MPB outbreaks (Turner et al 1999;Schoennagel et al 2012;Harvey et al 2014;Page et al 2014;Nelson et al 2016), others have not found a link between MPB events and wildland fire extent (Mietkiewicz and Kulakowski 2016;Hart et al 2015). The inconsistencies among studies may reflect the influence of local and regional factors (e.g., climate, topography, forest composition, drought) that overshadow the influence of MPB out-breaks (Kulakowski and Veblen 2007;Nelson et al 2016), as well as differing methodological approaches. However, a study documenting fire behaviour in both experimental and wildland fires in BC found that rates of spread were two to three times greater in MPB-affected stands than predicted for unaffected lodgpole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon) stands, while crowning occurred under lower fire danger conditions (Perrakis et al 2014).…”

Section: Biodiversity and Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientists’ warning on wildfire — a Canadian perspective

et al. 2019

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Recently, the World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: a Second Notice was issued in response to ongoing and largely unabated environmental degradation due to anthropogenic activities. In the warning, humanity is urged to practice more environmentally sustainable alternatives to business as usual to avoid potentially catastrophic outcomes. Following the success of their warning, the Alliance of World Scientists called for discipline-specific follow-up papers. This paper is an answer to that call for the topic of wildland fire. Across much of Canada and the world, wildfires are anticipated to increase in severity and frequency in response to anthropogenic activities. The world scientists’ second warning provides the opportunity for wildland fire researchers to raise the profile of the potential impacts that anthropogenic activities are likely to have on future fire regimes and, in return, what impacts future fire regimes may have on humanity. We discuss how wildfire is related to several issues of concern raised in the world scientists’ second warning, including climate change, human population growth, biodiversity and forests, and freshwater availability. Furthermore, we touch on the potential future health impacts and challenges to wildfire suppression and management in Canada. In essence, our wildfire scientists’ warning to humanity is that we, as a society, will have to learn to live with more fire on the landscape. We provide some recommendations on how we might move forward to prepare for and adapt to future wildfire regimes in Canada. Although this paper is primarily Canadian in focus, the concepts and information herein also draw from international examples and are of relevance globally.

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“…Such a protocol would lead to consistent methods of data collection among future studies and facilitate the easier comparison of results across studies. Further, we found that the spatial scale used for analysis is highly variable as studies range from individual plot (Agne et al 2016 ; Sieg et al 2017 ; Talucci and Krawchuk 2019 ) to stand (Page and Jenkins 2007 ; Schoennagel et al 2012 ; Perrakis et al 2014 ; Nelson et al 2016 ) to landscape-scale (Meigs et al 2016 ; McCarley et al 2017 ; Hart and Preston 2020 ), and that this may influence the reported fire response. While these issues are important to resolve for the accurate inclusion of MPB-fire interactions in forest and fire management strategies, the limited consensus in fire response to MPB outbreaks may also be driven by the variation in climate and weather conditions, topography, and historical forest management methods across sites (Stephens et al 2022 ; Talucci et al 2022 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

On the limited consensus of mountain pine beetle impacts on wildfire

Romualdi,

Wilkinson,

James

2023

Landsc Ecol

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Context The mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a native bark beetle whose outbreaks leads to widespread conifer forest mortality. Of particular concern to forest and wildfire managers is the influence of MPB outbreaks on wildfire via spatial legacies left in impacted forest stands. There is, however, limited consensus in the literature regarding how MPB outbreaks affect wildfire across western North America. Objectives This meta-analysis aims to (1) summarize available evidence regarding MPB-wildfire interactions, and (2) identify environmental and methodological indicators associated with various wildfire responses (i.e., amplified, neutral, or dampened) post-outbreak. Methods We include peer-reviewed publications focusing on MPB outbreaks and subsequent wildfire activity in forests across western Canada and the USA between 2000 and 2021. A classification scheme was used to examine attributes of each publication to assess which indicators contribute most to their associated wildfire response. Results We found that spatial scale, forest fuels, and weather are main drivers of variation in wildfire response post-outbreak. Metrics of forest fuels and inclusion of weather data on a stand-scale are related to amplified fire responses, whereas dampened responses correspond to landscape-scale analyses. Furthermore, red-stage stands are associated with amplified fire response, whereas other stages are associated with dampened response—supporting current conceptual models of the importance of outbreak stage on wildfire. Conclusions Advancing our understanding regarding drivers of wildfire responses post-MPB outbreak is key to developing accurate, and comparative research studies. These findings provide crucial information for wildfire, and forest management agencies, especially in forests newly exposed to this disturbance interaction under climate change.

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Assessing spatiotemporal relationships between wildfire and mountain pine beetle disturbances across multiple time lags

Cited by 6 publications

References 65 publications

Influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on large fires in British Columbia

Influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on large fires in British Columbia

Scientists’ warning on wildfire — a Canadian perspective

On the limited consensus of mountain pine beetle impacts on wildfire

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