In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances – in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure – can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from ‘yet another model’ to doing better science with models.

Pest species management is causing rapid and signifi cant changes to burrow-nesting petrel populations on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. The Weka, Gallirallus australis, was eliminated by 1989 and the Feral Cat, Felis catus, eradicated in 2000. The most abundant burrow nesting petrel species currently, White-headed Petrels, Pterodroma lessonii, Antarctic Prions, Pachypti!.a desolata, and Sooty Shearwaters, Puffinus griseus, have yet to increase in numbers, but are expected to do so in the absence of cats. This study found evidence that Grey Petrels, Procellaria cinerea, began breeding again on the island in 1999, after an absence of over 100 years. Blue Petrels, Halobaena caerulea, and Fairy Prions, Pachyptila turtur, were found to be re-colonising Macquarie Island from offshore stacks after a similar absence. South Georgian Diving-Petrels, Pelecanoides georgicus, were also possibly recolonising the island. Despite the presence of Black Rats, Rattus rattus, most of the bird species discussed are considered capable of population increase. If European Rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, are not elimi nated or maintained in reduced numbers, some petrel populations will never fully recover. Climate change could have a negative impact on burrow-nesting petrels, and is likely to exacerbate the detrimental effects of the remaining pest species on vulnerable indigenous bird species, compounding the need for remedial action against rabbits in particular. Together with predictions that other petrel species will now return to breed, certain terrestrial bird species, alien to the region, may invade Macquarie Island as a consequence of the combination of pest eradication and changing climatic conditions.

The introduction of new technologies into small remote communities can alter how individuals acquire knowledge about their surrounding environment. This is especially true when technologies that satisfy basic needs, such as freshwater use, create a distance (i.e., diminishing exposure) between individuals and their environment. However, such distancing can potentially be countered by the transfer of local knowledge between community members and from one generation to the next. The objective of this study is to simulate by way of agent-based modeling the tensions between technology-induced distancing and local knowledge that are exerted on community vulnerability to climate change. A model is developed that simulates how a collection of individual perceptions about changes to climatic-related variables manifest into community perceptions, how perceptions are influenced by the movement away from traditional resource use, and how the transmission of knowledge mitigates the potentially adverse effects of technology-induced distancing. The model is implemented utilizing climate and social data for two remote communities located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska. The agent-based model simulates a set of scenarios that depict different ways in which these communities may potentially engage with their natural resources, utilize knowledge transfer, and develop perceptions of how the local climate is different from previous years. A loosely-coupled pan-arctic climate model simulates changes monthly changes to climatic variables. The discrepancy between the perceptions derived from the agent-based model and the projections simulated by the climate model represent community vulnerability. The results demonstrate how demographics, the communication of knowledge and the types of ‘knowledge-providers’ influence community perception about changes to their local climate.

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Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143‐157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00498.x Abstract:  The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate‐driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water‐rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska’s relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long‐term resilience.

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