Assessing Risk for Sexual Recidivism: Some Proposals on the Nature of Psychologically Meaningful Risk Factors

Abstract

Risk assessment and treatment for sexual offenders should focus on individual characteristics associated with recidivism risk. Although it is possible to conduct risk assessments based purely on empirical correlates, the most useful evaluations also explain the source of the risk. In this review, the authors propose that the basic requirements for a psychologically meaningful risk factor are (a) a plausible rationale that the factor is a cause of sexual offending and (b) strong evidence that it predicts sexual recidivism. Based on the second of these criteria, the authors categorize potential risk factors according to the strength of the evidence for their relationship with offending. The most strongly supported variables should be emphasized in both assessment and treatment of sexual offenders. Further research is required, however, to establish causal connections between these variables and recidivism and to examine the extent to which changes in these factors leads to reductions in recidivism potential.

Understanding service users’ and therapists’ experiences of pharmacological treatment for sexual preoccupation and/or hypersexuality in incarcerated sex offenders

“…This is supported within the sex offender literature (e.g. Cortoni & Marshall, 2001;Mann, Hanson & Thornton, 2010;Seghorn & Ball, 2000) in which sexual outlets are recognised as 'self medication' or a coping strategy to overcome depression, anxiety or negative emotional states. Whether these effects of reduced depressive symptomology, and those of reduced arousal and preoccupation, are direct or indirect effects of the medication is currently unknown as there is difficulty in determining which is reduced first, but nevertheless a reduction in all was apparent.…”

A Meta-Analysis of Viewing Time Measures of Sexual Interest in Children

“…according to the present findings, using ethically unproblematic pictures comes at the cost of diagnostic accuracy for a construct that is substantially linked to sexual reoffending risk (e.g., Gray et al, 2015;Mann, Hanson, & Thornton, 2010). This poses a vexing dilemma of two ethical goods that stand in opposition to each other.…”

“…Of note, associations with risk levels can only be regarded as an indirect proof of construct validity for sexual interest in children as recidivism risk is only partially driven by pedophilic sexual interest (e.g., Brouillete-Alarie, Babchishin, Hanson, & Helmus, 2016;Mann et al, 2010). Finally, for applied forensic purposes it remains an important open empirical question at the present stage whether VT measures are amenable to faking attempts once the measurement rationale is known to the respondents or when processnaïve individuals try their subjective best to manipulate the assessment outcome.…”

Mieux saisir les outils actuariels : une analyse factorielle de la Statique-99R

“…La Statique-99, le plus populaire d'entre eux (Archer et al, 2006 ;Jackson et Hess, 2007 ;McGrath et al, 2010) statiques présenterait plusieurs inconvénients, notamment l'incapacité à identifi er des cibles thérapeutiques et à mesurer le changement, de même que l'incapacité à comprendre la dynamique causale menant à la récidive (Gendreau et al, 1996 ;Cortoni, 2009). Bien que leur validité prédictive ne soit pas en deçà des échelles actuarielles dynamiques (Beech et al, 2002 ;Knight et Thornton, 2007), les échelles purement statiques ne répondraient pas au besoin qu'ont les évaluateurs de comprendre les mécanismes générateurs de risque chez leurs clients (Mann et al, 2010). Par exemple, le fait qu'un détenu ait déjà agressé sexuellement un enfant masculin est en soi moins éclairant que d'être au fait de ses fantaisies sexuelles pédophiliques susceptibles de le vulnérabiliser relativement à un éventuel passage à l'acte.…”