The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors (e.g., characteristics of prior offences). Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets or evaluate change. In this article, we argue that this limitation can be mitigated by using latent variable models as a framework to link historical risk factors to the psychological characteristics of offenders. Accordingly, we conducted a factor analysis of the 13 nonredundant items from the two most commonly used risk tools for sexual offenders (Static-99R and Static-2002R) to identify the psychological information contained in these tools. Three factors were identified: (a) persistence/paraphilia, a construct related to sexual criminality, especially of the pedophilic type; (b) youthful stranger aggression, a construct centered on young age and offence seriousness; and (c) general criminality, a construct that reflected the diversity and magnitude of criminal careers. These constructs predicted sexual recidivism with similar accuracy, but only youthful stranger aggression and general criminality predicted nonsexual recidivism. These results indicate that risk tools for sexual violence are multidimensional, and support a shift from a focus on atheoretical risk markers to the assessment of psychologically meaningful constructs.
The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors. Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets, or evaluate change. However, researchers using latent variable models have identified three dimensions in static actuarial scales for sexual offenders: Sexual Criminality, General Criminality, and a third dimension centered on young age and aggression to strangers. In the current study, we examined the convergent and predictive validity of these dimensions, using psychological features of the offender (e.g., antisocial traits, hypersexuality) and recidivism outcomes. Results indicated that (a) Sexual Criminality was related to dysregulation of sexuality toward atypical objects, without intent to harm; (b) General Criminality was related to antisocial traits; and (c) Youthful Stranger Aggression was related to a clear intent to harm the victim. All three dimensions predicted sexual recidivism, although only General Criminality and Youthful Stranger Aggression predicted nonsexual recidivism. These results indicate that risk tools for sexual violence are multidimensional, and support a shift from an exclusive focus on total scores to consideration of subscales measuring psychologically meaningful constructs.
Les opinions exprimées n'engagent que les auteurs et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles de Sécurité publique Canada. Les auteurs aimeraient remercier Jean Proulx pour son important travail de relecture. R. Karl Hanson est l'un des auteurs de la Statique-99R, de la Statique-2002R et de la STABLE-2007. Les droits d'auteur de ces outils appartiennent au Gouvernement du Canada.
The aims of the current paper were to identify dimensions of the Static-99R, the most commonly used sex-offender actuarial scale, and to test their predictive validity. Exploratory factor analysis extracted three dimensions from the scale: sexual criminality, general criminality and detachment. Cox regression analyses revealed that different actuarial dimensions predicted different recidivism outcomes; sexual criminality predicted only sexual recidivism, while general criminality predicted only non-sexual violent recidivism and non-sexual non-violent recidivism. Detachment had an inconsistent predictive validity. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated that the latest Static-99 revision, the Static-99R, outperformed its predecessor in virtually every way. These same analyses revealed that the Static-99R was as effective with sexual aggressors of women as with sexual aggressors of children.
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