Assessing Risk Factors for Transmission of Infection

Koopman, James S.; Longini, Ira M.; Jacquez, John A.; Simon, Carl P.; Ostrow, David G.; Martin, William R.; Woodcock, David M.

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115832

Cited by 78 publications

(42 citation statements)

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“…Our modeling approach is consistent with a large base of literature that describes the use of dynamic population models in the study of epidemics (14-16) and environmental disease processes (17)(18)(19). Our model consists of 5 population-level epidemiologic states that account for persons who are susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected but asymptomatic carriers (C), diseased (D), and postinfection (P) (Figure 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Strategies to Reduce Person-to-Person Transmission during WidespreadEscherichia coliO157:H7 Outbreak

Seto

Soller²,

Colford

2007

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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RESEARCHDuring the Escherichia coli O157:H7 outbreak in 2006 in the United States, the primary strategy to prevent illness was to advise consumers not to eat spinach. No widespread warnings were issued about preventing person-to-person (secondary) transmission. A disease transmission model, fi tted to the current data, was used to investigate likely reductions in illnesses that could result from interventions to prevent secondary transmission. The model indicates that exposure to contaminated spinach occurred early in the outbreak and that secondary transmission was similar to that in previous E. coli outbreaks (≈12%). The model also suggests that even a modestly effective strategy to interrupt secondary transmission (prevention of only 2%-3% of secondary illnesses) could result in a reduction of ≈5%-11% of symptomatic cases. This analysis supports the use of widespread public health messages during outbreaks of E. coli O157:H7 with specifi c advice on how to interrupt secondary transmission.W idespread distribution of contaminated spinach was implicated in an Escherichia coli O157:H7 (E. coli O157) outbreak in the United States in 2006. As of September 24, 2006, a total of 173 cases had been reported in 25 states; 88% of cases were reported over an 18-day period from August 19 through September 5, 2006 (1). The outbreak strain was particularly virulent, resulting in 1 death, 53% of patients being hospitalized, and a 16% rate of hemolytic uremic syndrome. At the time of our analysis, the potential extent of the outbreak was unknown because new cases were still being reported. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the US Food and Drug Administration advised consumers not to eat spinach as the primary strategy for protecting against foodborne transmission of E. coli O157 (2). No warnings, however, were issued regarding the prevention of person-to-person (secondary) transmission.According to recent studies on the extent of secondary transmission for E. coli O157 and other pathogens, the initially reported foodborne illnesses in the outbreak may have represented only a small fraction of a larger outbreak that included asymptomatic infections and secondary infections among household members of infected persons and other close contacts. Specifi cally, the E. coli O157 literature indicates that a large proportion (72%) of infections are asymptomatic (3), exposure to low doses can result in infection (4), and reported secondary transmission rates are on the order of 4%-16% (5). Further, outbreaks of shigellosis (6), cryptosporidiosis (7), and giardiasis (8,9) indicate that other highly infectious enteric pathogens can spread from person to person after being introduced into a community through water, food, or other sources (9). Recent adenovirus outbreak data indicate that persons with asymptomatic infection who are shedding virus can be a primary cause of continual transmission of infection (10). And in a prolonged giardiasis outbreak that occurred in late 2003 in a Boston, Massachusetts, suburb, 30 ...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Strategies to Reduce Person-to-Person Transmission during WidespreadEscherichia coliO157:H7 Outbreak

Seto

Soller²,

Colford

2007

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…As those authors reported, clustering is a key feature of the BHV-1 1998-serosurvey data, with an intra-cluster (intra-herd) correlation coefficient of 0.64. Exposure to infectious agents probably results in a more-homogeneous serological status of animals within clusters as measured by the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (Donald and Donner, 1987;Rothman, 1990), because the interrelatedness of incidence and prevalence is the very characteristic that defines infectious diseases (Koopman et al, 1991;Susser, 1994a;De Jong, 1995). Consequently, it cannot be assumed that the animals are independent units (Schukken et al, 1991;Elbers and Schukken, 1995;Cameron and Baldock, 1998), because compared to other population members, animals within clusters have a higher chance of becoming infected once the infection is introduced into the herd.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors for bovine herpesvirus-1 seropositivity

Boelaert

Speybroeck

Kruif

et al. 2005

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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This paper reports the investigation of risk factors for bovine herpesvirus-1-seropositivity, based on a cluster-sample survey of the Belgian cattle population. This serosurvey was carried out in 1998 in 309 randomly selected unvaccinated herds of all types (dairy, mixed and beef) were all bovids (N = 11,284) were sampled.Older and male cattle had higher seroprevalence. Origin (homebred or purchased) and herd size interacted; for smaller herds ( 50 cattle on the premises), purchase status and larger herd size were risk factors, whereas these effects were not observed for larger herds. #

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“…Thus, fundamental properties that are unique to the transmission of infectious diseases, such as immunity to infection and the potential for person-to-person transmission of infection, are not accounted for in those assessments. There are, however, limitations of addressing the transmission of infectious diseases as a static process (Koopman et al, 1991;Koopman and Longini, 1994;Eisenberg et al, 1996). Dynamic models of disease transmission (Hethcote, 1976;Anderson and May, 1991) are able to account for human exposures to contaminated media such as water, exposures to infected individuals that may result in personto-person transmission of infection (Eisenberg et al, 2002), and protection from infection (immunity) from prior exposures (Soller et al, 2002b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating susceptible subpopulations in microbial risk assessment: pediatric exposures to enteroviruses in river water

Parkin

Soller²,

Olivieri³

2003

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol

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The City of Stockton, California operates a wastewater treatment facility that discharges treated effluent to the San Joaquin River. During a recent discharge permit renewal, the question was raised whether pathogenic microorganisms in the effluent may cause an unacceptably high health risk for body contact recreation in the vicinity of the discharge. An investigation was initiated to characterize the risk to public health via body contact recreation in the San Joaquin River under various flow and treatment scenarios. In this investigation, a disease transmission model was applied to quantitatively characterize the relative risk associated with various treatment and flow scenarios for the City of Stockton's wastewater treatment facility. An important component of the investigation was to assess the feasibility of quantitatively characterizing the risk to highly susceptible subpopulations for effluent-related exposures to enteroviruses. This paper presents the methods used to conduct the feasibility assessment, the conclusions drawn for this project, and our recommendations to improve exposure assessments of susceptible subpopulations' contact with microbial pathogens in recreational water.

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Assessing Risk Factors for Transmission of Infection

Cited by 78 publications

References 0 publications

Strategies to Reduce Person-to-Person Transmission during WidespreadEscherichia coliO157:H7 Outbreak

Strategies to Reduce Person-to-Person Transmission during WidespreadEscherichia coliO157:H7 Outbreak

Risk factors for bovine herpesvirus-1 seropositivity

Incorporating susceptible subpopulations in microbial risk assessment: pediatric exposures to enteroviruses in river water

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