Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

Mitchell, Dann; Davini, Paolo; Harvey, Ben; Massey, Neil; Haustein, Karsten; Woollings, Tim; Jones, R. G.; Otto, Fredi; Guillod, Benoît P.; Sparrow, Sarah; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z

Cited by 34 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…It is well-documented that climate models reasonably well capture changes in global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily thermodynamically controlled. In contrast, there is much less confidence in circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics343536. We assume here that even models that don’t correctly simulate certain details of planetary wave dynamics responses37— an issue we will examine later– are still likely to get the QRA fingerprint right, allowing us to draw reliable real-world conclusions about how climate change may impact the phenomenon of QRA.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Mann

Rahmstorf

Kornhuber

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

279

226

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Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Mann

Rahmstorf

Kornhuber

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

279

226

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…More recently, the prominent role of air‐sea coupling associated with the Gulf and Kuroshio currents (e.g., Häkkinen et al, ; O‘Reilly & Czaja, ; O‘Reilly et al, ) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in modulating block intensities and preferred locations over the North Pacific (NP; Barriopedro et al, ; Barriopedro & Calvo, ) has been demonstrated. The role of interactions with the ocean is of interest given that recent analyses of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) show an underrepresentation of blocking frequency, especially over the Atlantic (Masato et al, ; Mitchell et al, ; Vial & Osborn, ), although there are variations in these biases depending on whether Pacific versus Euro‐Atlantic blocking sectors are considered (Matsueda et al, ) and the level of horizontal resolution (see, for example, D’Andrea et al, ; Davini & D‘Andrea, ; Schiemann et al, ; Vial & Osborn, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern Hemisphere Blocking in ∼25‐km‐Resolution E3SM v0.3 Atmosphere‐Land Simulations

et al. 2019

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The fidelity of a prerelease Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) in reproducing atmospheric blocking is evaluated with ∼100‐ and ∼25‐km horizontal resolution within ensembles of simulations with Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Protocol‐type active atmosphere and land surface configurations. This evaluation is conducted via a hybrid bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height. The lower‐resolution model correctly reproduces the spatial distribution of blocking frequency maxima over the Northern Hemisphere. However, it overestimates the blocking frequency over western North America, the Pacific Northeast, and Eastern Europe regions and largely underestimates blocking frequency over the North Atlantic. The high‐resolution model significantly reduces the bias over the North Pacific region, particularly over western North America, but the biases over the North Atlantic blocking sector mostly persist. A diagnosis of the mean flow reveals that the subtropical jet is displaced poleward in the high‐resolution model with a jet core speed that is generally more realistic. A time scale analysis of eddies suggests that synoptic eddies associated with the blocking events are increased in the high‐resolution configuration. The discrepancy between the models implies that both synoptic and low‐frequency eddies play significant roles in determining North Pacific blocking, whereas North Atlantic blocking is mainly driven by low‐frequency eddies. The characteristic time scale associated with blocking events is also investigated, and it shows that both model resolutions produce events that are overly persistent. However, the bias in the high‐resolution model is reduced, which reflects more efficient energy dispersion with higher resolution.

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“…In addition, given the importance of both dynamic and thermodynamic effects (2,3,9,25,43), we demonstrate the potential to systematically evaluate the occurrence of physical "ingredients" that contribute to individual events.…”

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Diffenbaugh

Singh

Mankin

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

530

313

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Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. event attribution | climate extremes | climate change | global warming T he last decade has witnessed increasing interest in possible connections between historical global warming and individual extreme climate events (1-9). This interest is grounded in both scientific and practical motivations. First, extremes underlie many of the most acute stresses on natural and human systems (10, 11). Understanding the influence of historical warming on extremes is therefore critical for detecting climate change impacts (12, 13). Second, trends in the frequency and/or intensity of extremes have already been detected (10, 11), implying increasing probability of events that are unprecedented in the observed record. Third, continued global warming is likely to cause widespread emergence of unprecedented events in the future (e.g., refs. 10 and 14).Effective management of climate-related risks therefore requires robust quantification of the probability of extremes in the current and future climate (10). For example, quantification of risk and liability (8,15), and design of resilient infrastructure and resource management systems (16), must account for both historical nonstationarity and the likelihood of future changes. Similarly, the United Nations mechanisms for climate change compensation, adaptation, and preparation create a practical need to quantify the contribution of historical emissions to individual extreme events (e.g., ref. 17). Finally, connections between historical warming and individual events have b...

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Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

Cited by 34 publications

References 45 publications

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Northern Hemisphere Blocking in ∼25‐km‐Resolution E3SM v0.3 Atmosphere‐Land Simulations

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

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