Purpose of ReviewAtmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.Recent FindingsSeveral avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts.SummaryThe term ‘blocking’ covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft: the German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 September to 22 October 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal for investigating midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, as well as their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage, and the multifaceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and the downstream impacts of weather systems affecting Europe.

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2-6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upperand lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper-and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30-60% of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper-and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread 1 in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.

Projected changes in the extra‐tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi‐model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present‐day year‐to‐year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle‐of‐the‐road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter‐annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter‐annual variability.