Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem

Du, Xinzhong; Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Wang, Junye

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.344

Cited by 59 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Increasing low and median flows and decreasing peak flows result in a more uniform distribution of streamflow throughout the year, essentially 'flattening' the hydrograph ( Figure 6). The lack of seasonal variability in streamflow is often not beneficial for the ecological community, and decreasing summer flows can result in higher stream temperatures which endanger fish populations [56]. Moderate fluctuations in streamflow stabilize channel structure through sediment transport and interaction between river and its floodplain and drives nutrient exchange and breeding cycles.…”

Section: Overall Flow Regimementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Muhammad

Evenson

Unduche

et al. 2020

Water

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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

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Section: Overall Flow Regimementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Muhammad

Evenson

Unduche

et al. 2020

Water

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“…Increases in plant and animal species richness/ turnover in the southern boreal (Zhang et al 2015b;Berteaux et al 2018); declines of boreal and southern mountain caribou populations; undisturbed intact forests as climate refugia for bird species associated with mature forests (Stralberg et al 2015a;Cadieux and Drapeau 2017) Drastic declines of most caribou populations, particularly in the eastern boreal (Yannic et al 2014); near-disappearance of polar bears in the Hudson Bay area; population declines of bird species associated with mature and old forests (Mahon et al 2014) Short-term changes in soil conditions, water quantity and quality in basins where adaptive forest management take place (Webster et al 2015); small to moderate flow modifications in many basins under hydroelectric reservoir expansion to utilize increased potential of hydropower production (Shevnina et al 2018) Localized effects on soil conditions, water quantity and quality by natural resource development (Kreutzweiser et al 2008;Webster et al 2015); increased contamination and summer water temperature of surface and groundwater in the Athabasca Oil Sand region, affecting aquatic life (Alam et al 2018;Du et al 2019); altered hydrologic regimes in basins with increased hydropower and agricultural development; variable thaw-induced changes in water quantity and quality across the northern boreal…”

Section: Proactionary Attitudementioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

et al. 2019

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Global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants have produced broad yet regionally disparate changes in climatic conditions and pollutant deposition in the Canadian boreal zone (the boreal). Adapting boreal resource management to atmospheric change requires a holistic understanding and awareness of the ongoing and future responses of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in this vast, heterogeneous landscape. To integrate existing knowledge of and generate new insights from the broad-scale impacts of atmospheric change, we first describe historical and present trends (∼1980–2015) in temperature, precipitation, deposition of hazardous air pollutants, and atmospheric-mediated natural disturbance regimes in this region. We then examine their associations with ecosystem condition and productivity, biological diversity, soil and water, and the carbon budget. These associations vary considerably among ecozones and likely undergo further changes under the emerging risks of atmospheric change. We highlight the urgent need to establish long-term, boreal-wide monitoring for many key components of freshwater ecosystems to better understand and project the influences of atmospheric change on boreal water resources. We also formulate three divergent future scenarios of boreal ecosystems in 2050. Our scenario analysis reveals multiple undesirable changes in boreal ecosystem structure and functioning with more variable atmospheric conditions and frequent land disturbances, while continuing business-as-usual management of natural resources. It is possible, though challenging, to reduce unwanted consequences to ecosystems through management regimes focussed on socio-ecological sustainability and developing resilient infrastructure and adaptive resource-management strategies. We emphasize the need for proactive actions and improved foresight for all sectors of society to collaborate, innovate, and invest in anticipation of impending global atmospheric change, without which the boreal zone will face a dim future.

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“…Further, a warmer future climate was found likely to increase the temperature which in turn will reduce the dissolved oxygen concentrations. Therefore, under a changing climate, these cold regions could become more vulnerable than others because some special geographic features of the regions, such as glaciers, freezing soils and peatland, are more sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation [95][96][97]. This can impose serious threats on the water resources, sustainable goods production and ecosystem services that depend on regional water quality.…”

Section: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Grazing Management on Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Soil Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Grasslands and Rangelands: Monitoring, Modelling and Upscaling

Wang¹

2019

Preprint

Self Cite

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The sustainability of grazing lands lies in the nexus of human consumption behavior, livestock productivity, and environmental sustainability. Due to fast growing global food demands, many grazing lands have suffered from overgrazing, leading to soil degradation, air and water pollution, and biodiversity losses. Multidisciplinary efforts are required to understand how grazing lands can be better monitored, assessed and managed to attain predictable outcomes of optimal benefit to society. This paper synthesizes our understanding based on previous work done on impacts of grazing on ecosystem goods and services, identifies current knowledge gaps, and formulates a plan forward. We review the impacts of two contrasting grazing systems, continuous and multi-paddock rotational grazing, on soil carbon (C), nutrient cycling and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). We then extend our review to explore challenges of incorporating spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability into monitoring and modelling C and nutrient cycling in grazing lands. We revisit two process-based models (i.e., DNDC and DayCent) and two watershed models (i.e., SWAT and VIC) widely used to simulate C, nutrient and water cycles of these lands. Finally we identify research directions for improving the knowledge base which is essential to conserve grazing lands and maintain their ecosystem goods and services.

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Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem

Cited by 59 publications

References 28 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Effects of Grazing Management on Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Soil Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Grasslands and Rangelands: Monitoring, Modelling and Upscaling

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Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem

Cited by 59 publications

References 28 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Effects of Grazing Management on Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Soil Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Grasslands and Rangelands: Monitoring, Modelling and Upscaling

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Product

Resources

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Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹