Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.013

Cited by 135 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Significant increases in summer runoff and sediment yield in the high-latitude headwater watershed were found, accompanied by the rising of summer precipitation and temperature (Table 5). Similar results were also found in a recent study by Shrestha et al [38] that stated that summer streamflow was expected to increase up to 63% under changing climate in the headwater region of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada. This may be mainly due to the fact that rainfall amounts in summer increase significantly for the two scenarios (Table 7).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Seasonal Variation Of Runoff and Ssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…A 35% increase in spring runoff and a 103% increase in sediment yield under RCP4.5 may result from increasing snowmelt generated during warming springs ( Table 5). The projected increases in discharge [17,38] and sediment yield [23,28] due to more snowmelt induced by warming spring have been reported in other high-latitude headwaters in the globe. However, decreasing in spring runoff and sediment yield under RCP8.5 was also projected, though a warmer condition was expected.…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Seasonal Variation Of Runoff and Smentioning

confidence: 61%

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Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast

Zhou

Xiao

et al. 2017

Water

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Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on water resources in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses in those regions to a warmer environment, our knowledge on erosion and sediment yield induced by the climate change in high-latitude headwaters is still limited. In this study, we estimated suspended sediment yields from 2021 to 2050 in a typical headwater area of far Northeast China to elucidate potential impacts of future climate change on surface runoff and erosion in higher latitude regions. We first parameterized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using historical measurements to estimate runoff from the river basin. The model performed well in both the calibration (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) and the validation (2012-2014) periods, with an R 2 of 0.85 and 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and 0.73, respectively. We also utilized historical measurements on sediment yields from the period 2006-2014 to develop a runoff-sediment yield rating curve, and the rating curve obtained an excellent goodness of fit (R 2 = 0.91, p < 0.001). We then applied the calibrated SWAT model to two climate change projections, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), for the period from 2021 to 2050 to obtain future runoff estimates. These runoff estimates were then used to predict future sediment yield by using the developed runoff-sediment yield rating curve. Our study found a significant increase of annual sediment yield (p < 0.05) for both climate change projections (RCP4.5 = 237%; RCP8.5 = 133%) in this, China's high-latitude region. The increases of sediment yield were prevalent in summer and autumn, varying from 102-299% between the two RCPs scenarios. Precipitation was the dominated factor that determined the variation of runoff and sediment yield. A warming climate could bring more snowmelt-induced spring runoff and longer rainy days in autumn, hence leading to higher erosion. These findings demonstrate that under the changing climate, soils in this high-latitude headwater area would be eroded twice to three times that of the baseline period , indicating a potential risk to the downstream water quality and reservoir management.

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Section: Climate Change Impacts On Seasonal Variation Of Runoff and Ssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Seasonal Variation Of Runoff and Smentioning

confidence: 61%

Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast

Zhou

Xiao

et al. 2017

Water

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“…As a consequence, several studies have shown the impacts of future climate change on freshwater budgets [5,[33][34][35][36], streamflow [2,6,7,37,38], and hydrological extremes [6,[8][9][10]39,40] at large-scale continental watersheds. In small-scale Pacific island watersheds, such as in Hawaii, a few studies [3,4,41] have also assessed the impact of climate change on water budgets but focused at monthly and yearly mean values.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

2018

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Abstract:The integration of hydrology and climate is important for understanding the present and future impact of climate on streamflow, which may cause frequent flooding, droughts, and shortage of water supply. In view of this, we assessed the impact of climate change on daily streamflow duration curves as well as extreme peak and low flow values. The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts watershed-wide streamflow and its extreme values and to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) on streamflow and hydrological extremes when compared with the baseline values. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for daily streamflow and its extreme value modeling of two watersheds located on the Island of Oahu (Hawaii). Following successful calibration and validation of SWAT at three USGS flow gauging stations, we simulated the impact of climate change by the 2050s (2041-2070) and the 2080s (2071-2100). We used climate change perturbation factors and applied the factors to the historical time series data of 1980-2014. SWAT adequately reproduced observed daily streamflow with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of greater than 0.5 and bracketed >80% of observed streamflow data at 95% model prediction uncertainty at all flow gauging stations, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow prediction. We found that while the considered climate change scenarios generally show considerable negative impacts on daily streamflow and its extreme values, the extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 22% especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, a consistent decrease in extreme low flows by as much as 60% compared to the baseline values is projected. Larger negative changes of low flows are expected in the upstream part of the watersheds where higher groundwater contributions are expected. Consequently, severe problems, such as frequent hydrological droughts (groundwater scarcity), reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water demand, are significantly expected on Oahu. Furthermore, the extreme values are more sensitive to rainfall change in comparison to temperature and solar radiation changes. Overall, findings generally indicated that climate change impacts will be amplified by the end of this century and may cause earlier occurrence of hydrological droughts when compared to the current hydrological regime, suggesting water resources managers, ecosystem conservationists, and ecologists to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Hawaii and similar Islands.

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“…The consistent increase in global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon-dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides, appears to be the main cause of global warming, which has already altered the natural climate system [1][2][3]. It has been well-documented that this climate change has already affected hydrologic cycle elements, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, and baseflow, including the response of rainfall-runoff processes [4][5][6]. Not only hydrologic cycle components, but also the magnitude, frequency, and timing of the occurrence of peak flows (floods) and low flows (droughts) have already been altered by climate change [4,5,[7][8][9][10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Not only hydrologic cycle components, but also the magnitude, frequency, and timing of the occurrence of peak flows (floods) and low flows (droughts) have already been altered by climate change [4,5,[7][8][9][10][11][12]. Such impacts are expected to continue, and may result in adverse consequences on freshwater availability and sustainability, including frequent occurrence of hydrological extremes, such as flooding and droughts [4][5][6], which may have significant impact on riverine ecosystems and their natural habitats [13]. Hydrological extremes may also cause serious problems, such as shortage of water supply, landslides, soil erosion, and damage to existing infrastructures [14][15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

Leta

Bauwens

2018

Hydrology

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Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036-2065) and the 2080s (2066-2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of . We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

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Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada

Cited by 135 publications

References 35 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast

Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

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