Assessing climate change impact on flood discharge in South America and the influence of its main drivers

Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Siqueira, Vinícius Alencar; Collischonn, Walter

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129284

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…The higher trends of water temperature in relation to air temperature also become more evident (for example, Figure S1 shows that the water − air temperature difference increases for most of the year for the three lakes), which differs from what is expected for the behavior of lakes facing a warming climate (e.g., due to increased evaporation 56,57 ). This could be due to the delay in warming in relation to air temperatures, which could not be observed using the 20 yr long T w data, by other effects of climate change, such as trends in water transparency, which could occur as a result of earlier spring or changes in precipitation (Table 2; Breda et al 58 ), or a low statistic power, when the magnitude of the trends is low. 52 Due to the excess warming of lake water in spring, the summer warming rates of T w were considerably lower than T a , especially in December when higher air trends were found.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Although it was not further investigated here, our results suggest that the changes in river discharge (or river temperature), which may also be a result of climate change, may have a significant local, long-term effect on LSWT and that can be even more pronounced in lakes with proportionally larger watersheds. Additionally, the intensification of air temperature warming and changes in precipitation and river discharge patterns may further enhance these spatial differences in the trends in the future. These spatial differences may have important physical and ecological consequences, as discussed in other studies, for example, in the heat content and heat fluxes, increase in algal productivity and biomass, , and the aforementioned changes in the composition of phytoplankton functional groups. − These changes can result in further modifications in the food web, for example, in shifts in trophic interactions and species distributions due to thermal habitat suitability. ,, …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High Spring Warming Rates in an Extensive Subtropical Shallow Lakes System Detected Using MODIS Imagery

Tavares,

Cardoso,

Motta Marques

et al. 2024

ACS EST Water

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The effects of climate change on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) have been well documented in the northern hemisphere but are less understood in the south, particularly in shallow lakes. Here we investigated the warming rates of three large shallow lakes in southern Brazil using a comprehensive 60 year meteorological data set and a 20 year LSWT time series derived from MODIS. Our findings reveal substantial and consistent regional lake water warming concentrated in spring (0.5 °C dec −1 ) and, to a lesser extent, summer (mean trend of 0.3 °C dec −1 ) and annual trends (0.3 °C dec −1 ), in fair agreement with air temperature trends. The data showed an increase in mean, maximum, and minimum air temperatures in these periods, along with a shortening of the cold season for air (−6.3 days dec −1 ) and water (−11.6 days dec −1 ), with all these changes exhibiting heightened intensity in the last 20 years. The remote sensing data showed a fair homogeneity in the warming rates within the lakes but marked spatial differences, possibly owing to the effects of climate change on the tributaries. The warming rates found here can result, for example, in anticipation of phytoplankton phenology and alteration in the functional groups, while the spatial differences in the warming may have additional ecological impacts.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Spring Warming Rates in an Extensive Subtropical Shallow Lakes System Detected Using MODIS Imagery

Tavares,

Cardoso,

Motta Marques

et al. 2024

ACS EST Water

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“…The Paranaíba River is the primary water supply source of, and receives sewage discharge from, the population in Patos de Minas [40]. In the context of climate change, some projections estimate a decrease in extreme precipitations and flood events in the region [88], emphasizing the importance of long-term flow predictions that use these models to assist in efficient resource management, ensuring a continuous water supply and helping mitigate risks associated with urban activities and expansion. Future studies may integrate additional approaches, for instance, to include short-term daily predictions, as in Meis et al [77], to explore extreme scenarios under the influence of climate change [89] or to assess the impact of anthropogenic effects on water quality parameters [90].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Time Series Models for Mean Discharge Modeling and Forecasting in a Sub-Basin of the Paranaíba River, Brazil

Costa,

Menezes Filho,

Canales

et al. 2023

Hydrology

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Stochastic modeling to forecast hydrological variables under changing climatic conditions is essential for water resource management and adaptation planning. This study explores the applicability of stochastic models, specifically SARIMA and SARIMAX, to forecast monthly average river discharge in a sub-basin of the Paranaíba River near Patos de Minas, MG, Brazil. The Paranaíba River is a vital water source for the Alto Paranaíba region, serving industrial supply, drinking water effluent dilution for urban communities, agriculture, fishing, and tourism. The study evaluates the performance of SARIMA and SARIMAX models in long-term discharge modeling and forecasting, demonstrating the SARIMAX model’s superior performance in various metrics, including the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The inclusion of precipitation as a regressor variable considerably improves the forecasting accuracy, and can be attributed to the multivariate structure of the SARIMAX model. While stochastic models like SARIMAX offer valuable decision-making tools for water resource management, the study underscores the significance of employing long-term time series encompassing flood and drought periods and including model uncertainty analysis to enhance the robustness of forecasts. In this study, the SARIMAX model provides a better fit for extreme values, overestimating peaks by around 11.6% and troughs by about 5.0%, compared with the SARIMA model, which tends to underestimate peaks by an average of 6.5% and overestimate troughs by approximately 76.0%. The findings contribute to the literature on water management strategies and mitigating risks associated with extreme hydrological events.

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“…A region may be defined as hyper-arid when the ratio between precipitation and maximum evapotranspiration (P/PE) is below 0.05 [2,3]. Determining the character of water chemistry and identifying the relative importance of both natural and anthropogenic factors in the contamination of water resources in such regions is a global priority, especially with predicted climate change impacts [4][5][6]. This is particularly important on the arid and mineral-rich western flank of the Andes, where two thirds of Peru's population share less than 2% of the country's water and where the world's largest copper deposits reside [7][8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape-Scale Mining and Water Management in a Hyper-Arid Catchment: The Cuajone Mine, Moquegua, Southern Peru

Hunter,

Perera,

Barnes

et al. 2024

Water

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The expansion of copper mining on the hyper-arid pacific slope of Southern Peru has precipitated growing concern for scarce water resources in the region. Located in the headwaters of the Torata river, in the department of Moquegua, the Cuajone mine, owned by Southern Copper, provides a unique opportunity in a little-studied region to examine the relative impact of the landscape-scale mining on water resources in the region. Principal component and cluster analyses of the water chemistry data from 16 sites, collected over three seasons during 2017 and 2018, show distinct statistical groupings indicating that, above the settlement of Torata, water geochemistry is a function of chemical weathering processes acting upon underlying geological units, and confirming that the Cuajone mine does not significantly affect water quality in the Torata river. Impact mitigation strategies that firstly divert channel flow around the mine and secondly divert mine waste to the Toquepala river and tailings dam at Quebrada Honda remove the direct effects on the water quality in the Torata river for the foreseeable future. In the study area, our results further suggest that water quality has been more significantly impacted by urban effluents and agricultural runoff than the Cuajone mine. The increase in total dissolved solids in the waters of the lower catchment reflects the cumulative addition of dissolved ions through chemical weathering of the underlying geological units, supplemented by rapid recharge of surface waters contaminated by residues associated with agricultural and urban runoff through the porous alluvial aquifer. Concentrations in some of the major ions exceeded internationally recommended maxima for agricultural use, especially in the coastal region. Occasionally, arsenic and manganese contamination also reached unsafe levels for domestic consumption. In the lower catchment, below the Cuajone mine, data and multivariate analyses point to urban effluents and agricultural runoff rather than weathering of exposed rock units, natural or otherwise, as the main cause of contamination.

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Assessing climate change impact on flood discharge in South America and the influence of its main drivers

Cited by 14 publications

References 95 publications

High Spring Warming Rates in an Extensive Subtropical Shallow Lakes System Detected Using MODIS Imagery

High Spring Warming Rates in an Extensive Subtropical Shallow Lakes System Detected Using MODIS Imagery

Assessment of Time Series Models for Mean Discharge Modeling and Forecasting in a Sub-Basin of the Paranaíba River, Brazil

Landscape-Scale Mining and Water Management in a Hyper-Arid Catchment: The Cuajone Mine, Moquegua, Southern Peru

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