Assessing changeability under uncertain exogenous disturbance

Niese, Nathan D.

doi:10.1007/s00163-014-0177-5

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…If this action is unavailable, the next best action is performed. The reward from each action is calculated, and thus an ordered ranking of actions can be developed (Niese and Singer, 2014). Results from simulation form the basis for many of the metrics described in the following section.…”

Section: Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ship design evaluation subject to carbon emission policymaking using a Markov decision process framework

Niese

Kana

2015

Ocean Engineering

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Section: Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decision making performance is typically measured by a value function solved via a Bellman equation (Bellman, 1957). A discount factor can be used to depreciate future rewards (Niese and Singer, 2014).…”

Section: Markov Decision Process Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ship design evaluation subject to carbon emission policymaking using a Markov decision process framework

Niese

Kana

2015

Ocean Engineering

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“…The use of specific ilities has also become integrated with different focus areas, for example: manufacturing flexibility, machinery flexibility, and product flexibility . Other applications of changeability in the literature include oil and gas systems, ships, power systems, and spacecrafts—to mention a few. This illustrates the wide application area of changeability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of changeability level for engineering systems

Rehn

Pettersen

Garcia

et al. 2018

Systems Engineering

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This paper outlines a generic method for quantifying changeability level, to support better decision making in the early stages of design of engineering systems. Changeability represents the ability of a system to change form, function, or operation, and is a collective term for characteristics such as flexibility, adaptability, and agility. Quantification of changeability level must not be confused with valuation of changeability. The level of changeability in a design is essentially under the control of the designer. Two aspects of changeability are discussed, the first being how to structure changeable design alternatives using the Design for Changeability (DFC) variable. The DFC variable represents combinations of path enablers built into a design. Path enablers are characteristics of systems enabling them to change more easily. The second aspect is to quantify the level of changeability for a given design alternative, based on change cost and time. For the latter, we propose two measures for quantification: (1) bottom-up, measuring the reduction of cost and time enabled for each relevant change, and (2) top-down, measuring the span of change opportunities at given cost and time thresholds. A case study of a ship is presented to demonstrate the proposed generic method. K E Y W O R D S changeability, flexibility, systems design, uncertainty 80

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“…Real options analysis can be used as a decision support tool for determining when to apply changes to an existing system. A complementary view to real options is that of viewing the design as existing in multiple system states (Niese & Singer, 2014;. A ship being retrofitted could hence be seen as a system moving between two states.…”

Section: Real Options and Flexibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maritime systems studied with epochera analysis include anchor handling, tug, and supply (AHTS) vessels taking future uncertain contracts into account , AHTS design with more elaborate treatment of stakeholder preferences (Gaspar, Rhodes, Ross, & Erikstad, 2012), lifecycle assessment of machinery systems (Gaspar, Balland, Aspen, Ross, & Erikstad, 2015), and an industrial case of the design process for an OCV (Pettersen et al, 2017). Another notable strategy for designing marine systems under uncertainty are Markov decision processes and dynamic programming to identify optimal strategies for management of ship design reconfiguration through the lifecycle (Kana & Harrison, 2017;Niese & Singer, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing flexible offshore construction vessel designs combining real options and epoch-era analysis

Pettersen

Erikstad

2017

Ship Technology Research

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Abstract:Recent events in offshore oil and gas markets show the need for elaborate treatments of uncertainty throughout the design process and lifecycle management of maritime engineering systems. Offshore construction vessels are subject to uncertainty stemming from both economic factors modelled as stochastic processes, and from discrete factors like regulations and contract requirements. In this paper, we present a simulation framework for valuation of flexible offshore construction vessels incorporating simultaneously real options analysis and epoch-era analysis. Based on compliance with a set of contracts and the potential revenue to be earned from these contracts, the model seeks to maximize expected net present value for each contract period. Benchmarking a flexible design of an offshore construction vessel against an inflexible design, we estimate the value of flexibility and find strategies for managing the design through the lifecycle. The results show that significant gains in the value of the vessel result when design changes are taken into account.

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Assessing changeability under uncertain exogenous disturbance

Cited by 25 publications

References 27 publications

Ship design evaluation subject to carbon emission policymaking using a Markov decision process framework

Ship design evaluation subject to carbon emission policymaking using a Markov decision process framework

Quantification of changeability level for engineering systems

Assessing flexible offshore construction vessel designs combining real options and epoch-era analysis

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