Assessing flexible offshore construction vessel designs combining real options and epoch-era analysis

Pettersen, Sigurd Solheim; Erikstad, Stein Ove

doi:10.1080/09377255.2017.1334311

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The works of Keane et al 30 . and Pettersen and Erikstad 31 present two examples of EEA applications in the conceptual design of OSVs (Offshore Construction Vessels) ships. These works mainly discuss the need to understand and outline a complete panorama of the scenario in which the system is inserted so that the results obtained outcome in a system capable of delivering value over time in a complex, uncertain, and constantly changing context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leveraging epoch‐era analysis and digital twin for effective system concept and execution: A CO2$_2$ storage salt‐cave project

Vieira,

Fonseca,

Nishimoto

et al. 2023

Systems Engineering

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With the demand to reduce the release of CO2‐rich gases into the atmosphere, the offshore industry is turning to systems for gas capture and storage. The construction of a cave for that purpose is planned in the salt layer of the Santos Basin, Brazil; however, numerous factors bring uncertainties to the project. We propose combining systems engineering methods and digital twin technology to enable system concept and execution aiming at value robustness. The system is modeled in mission, subsystems, components, and design attributes. System utilities and costs are estimated for a range of viable solutions based on the relevance of each attribute to the stakeholders. The alternatives are evaluated using the Epoch‐Era Analysis framework for analyzing the system's performance over time in changing future scenarios. The system model also outlines a digital twin concept and identifies how it might support salt cave design and operations. Finally, the potential of tuning and improving system evaluation based on gathered data is examined, and measures toward further digital twin development are recommended.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leveraging epoch‐era analysis and digital twin for effective system concept and execution: A CO2$_2$ storage salt‐cave project

Vieira,

Fonseca,

Nishimoto

et al. 2023

Systems Engineering

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“…Nevertheless, within the ship design research field, several authors have introduced and investigated the effect of different sources of uncertainty in design decision making. For example, real options has been used to evaluate alternative designs for multiple sets of contracts (Pettersen 2017, Curry 2018 or to investigate when to invest in LNG to comply with environmental regulation (Acciaro 2014), and epoch era analysis has been used to take the effect of market changes into account (Gaspar 2012). However, these use a limited amount of scenarios and options, and probabilistic and parametric assumptions that are currently difficult to establish for the energy transition due to deep uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Evaluation of Suitable Methods to Deal with Deep Uncertainty Caused by the Energy Transition in Ship Design

Pruyn

2022

Day 2 Mon, June 27, 2022

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The maritime industry is transitioning toward zero emission. To ensure compliance with future emission reduction regulations, many different alternative fuels and technology options are being investigated and evaluated. However, as these are ongoing developments, this results in varying and changing data on the performance and requirements of options. On top of that, while regulatory ambitions are aiming for increasingly larger reductions of Green House Gases (GHG) and other harmful substances, the level and details of the future regulations are unknown and subject to ongoing scientific and societal discussions. The level of uncertainty regarding regulation and technology for the energy transition can be defined as being deeply uncertain, which means uncertainty cannot be ordered in terms of possibility or occurrence. Although uncertainty is not uncommon in ship design, ship owners and designers are faced with an unprecedented level of uncertainty and require new methods to deal with this. This paper therefore investigates and compares several methods that could be used to increase the feasibility of future energy carriers in the design process, while accounting for the uncertainty in regulation and technical details of alternative fuels. Three promising methods were identified in a literature research: Firstly, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) evaluates alternative options and develops possible pathways to compliance. Secondly, Responsive Systems Comparison (RSC) determines performance of a design in established scenarios (epoch), also allowing evaluation including retrofit (changeability). Thirdly, Robust Decision making (RDM) explores the effect of uncertainties on a pre-specified design and analyses its vulnerability. Within this paper, a first comparison is carried out by applying each method to a general cargo ship case. The goal is to better understand the usability and potential of each method for the energy transition in shipping. Each of the researched methods was shown to allow for different insights in option performance in uncertain conditions during the early design stage. With DAPP providing a global, but clear overview of the possible future pathways toward emission reduction compliance of the design, RSC giving a more detailed insight of technology options in specific scenarios (including evaluation of changeability in a scenario) and RDM allowing a more in depth research of the alternative fuel’s parameters and the circumstances under which these might comply. With each method demonstrating its own strength, future research will develop more realistic and complex designs and processes to be applied to a combination of the beneficial aspects of two or more methods.

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“…Page (2012) uses a Monte Carlo simulation for evaluating the lifecycle cost of flexible naval ships. Pettersen and Erikstad (2017) present a lifecycle evaluation model for flexible offshore construction vessels and estimate the value of flexibility by benchmarking the flexible designs against inflexible designs. Choi and Erikstad (2017) focus on integration of module configuration and lifecycle evaluation and present an optimization model that determines the optimal initial module configuration based on the lifecycle value.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operation platform design for modular adaptable ships: Towards the configure-to-order strategy

2018

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Modular adaptable ships have received growing attention in recent decades as a promising approach to handling uncertainty in future operating contexts. A modular adaptable ship can be used for multiple purposes by changing its module configuration. This configuration change is based on the ship's operation platform, which is used as a common basis for multiple module configurations. The design of an operation platform is a multi-objective problem in which designers have to deal with the conflicting requirements of multiple missions and carefully determine the interfaces that affect the configurability and flexibility of the modules. In this paper, we present an optimization model for the design of an operation platform. This determines the optimal platform design that best meets the desired capabilities of multiple missions while considering its expected lifecycle cost. A platform's capabilities are evaluated based on its multiple module configurations for individual missions. The evaluation of lifecycle cost uses operation scenarios due to its sensitivity. We implemented the model in a case study involving an offshore support vessel, for which an operation platform was designed to compete with inflexible multi-purpose ships. The results give insights into the platform design problem with opportunities for further improvement of the design.

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Assessing flexible offshore construction vessel designs combining real options and epoch-era analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Leveraging epoch‐era analysis and digital twin for effective system concept and execution: A CO2$_2$ storage salt‐cave project

Leveraging epoch‐era analysis and digital twin for effective system concept and execution: A CO2$_2$ storage salt‐cave project

An Evaluation of Suitable Methods to Deal with Deep Uncertainty Caused by the Energy Transition in Ship Design

Operation platform design for modular adaptable ships: Towards the configure-to-order strategy

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