Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2432-6

Cited by 34 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The largest deviations between the P INMET and P ECMWF data averaged 75 mmÁmo −1 in spring (October-December) in the Minas Gerais triangle and central regions (Figure 12j,l) and in summer (January and February) in the central regions (Figure 12a,b). This result was consistent with that by Ghosh et al (2018), who reported that the ECMWF system was problematic for simulating the characteristics of summer P ECMWF . The deviations were lowest (5 mmÁmo −1 ) for the winter (Figure 12g-i), mainly in the northeast, the Minas Triangle, and central regions.…”

Section: Rainfall Datasupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This result was consistent with that by Ghosh et al . (2018), who reported that the ECMWF system was problematic for simulating the characteristics of summer P ECMWF . The deviations were lowest (5 mm·mo −1 ) for the winter (Figure 12g–i), mainly in the northeast, the Minas Triangle, and central regions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2018) and Ghosh et al . (2018) reported inconsistent P ECMWF results for Ireland and southern Asia, respectively.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Validation of ECMWF climatic data, 1979–2017, and implications for modelling water balance for tropical climates

Aparecido¹,

Rolim

Moraes³

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Gridded meteorological systems greatly facilitate the analysis of the impacts of climate on crop development and productivity. Comparisons of these data with actual ground data validate this data source for various analyses in agricultural areas. The impact of the use of these grid data is an important evaluation for the temporal and spatial simulation of soil-water availability for crops. We seek to verify how meteorological (ECMWF) data represents the surface water balance for Minas Gerais state. Monthly data for air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from ECMWF were compared with the data from 771 ground stations (National Meteorological Institute, INMET) in the state of Minas Gerais in southeastern Brazil for 1979-2017. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated by Thornthwaite method (1948), and water balance was estimated by the method proposed by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), with an available water capacity of 100 mm. We temporally and spatially compared the two data sources, and the comparisons were evaluated for accuracy using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) root mean square error (RMSE) and for precision using the adjusted coefficient of determination (R 2 adj). ECMWF T and P tended to be temporally and spatially similar to the INMET data. The largest deviation between INMET T and ECMWF T was 2.81 C, mainly in the southwest of the state (the Minas Gerais triangle) and part of the central region during winter and spring, and the smallest deviation was −0.19 C in the northeast. The largest deviation between INMET P and ECMWF P was 75 mmÁmo −1 in the summer, mainly between January and February in the central region of Minas Gerais. ECMWF T and ECMWF P allowed an accurate estimation of the components of the water balance. For example, the lowest MAPEs were 1.21% for ECMWF water-storage capacity (southern Minas Gerais), 9.16% for ECMWF water deficiency (Vale do Jequitinhonha e Mucurí), and 8.69% for ECMWF excess water (Vale do Jequitinhonha e Mucurí). ECMWF can be used to estimate WB to represent surface stations, provided they are calibrated according to the region and seasons.

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Section: Rainfall Datasupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Validation of ECMWF climatic data, 1979–2017, and implications for modelling water balance for tropical climates

Aparecido¹,

Rolim

Moraes³

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The regional climate models (RCMs) have been found to realistically simulate the ISMR due to improved regional model physics, better representation of regional topography and land surface processes and better interaction mechanism among different regional model components (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and land) (Gao et al, 2012;Bukovsky et al, 2013;Feng and Fu, 2013;Pattnayak et al, 2013;Raju et al, 2015;Maurya et al, 2017;Ngo Duc et al, 2017;Bhatla et al, 2018;Choudhary et al, 2018;Devanand et al, 2018;Ghimire et al, 2018;Ghosh et al, 2018;Hassan and Du, 2018;Mishra and Dwivedi, 2019;Nayak et al, 2018). It has been argued that the rainfall distribution simulated by the downscaled high-resolution RCMs also capture at local scales (and physical processes) which are not resolved by the general circulation models (GCMs) (Giorgi et al, 1994;Dobler and Ahrens, 2011;Lucas-Picher et al, 2011;Mishra and Dwivedi, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Arabian Sea warming on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a regional climate model

Mishra

Dwivedi

Das

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The role of the Arabian Sea (AS) warming on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is investigated using regional climate model‐Regional Climate Model version 4.7 of International Centre for Theoretical Physics. The model realistically simulates the rainfall, temperature, low‐level winds and vertically integrated moisture flux over the Indian region during the years 2006–2015. It is found that the AS warming decreases the rainfall over most parts of the India, which is mainly due to decrease in the convective precipitation over these regions. The AS warming reduces the magnitude of westerly winds in the southern Bay of Bengal and AS; enhances the moisture convergence over the AS; and causes the prohibition of the moisture‐laden winds from the AS to reach to the Indian land regions resulting into decreased precipitation. The effect of anti‐cyclonic circulation produced over the central India as a result of the AS warming is to further reduce the monsoon rainfall. It is also shown that the AS warming increases the extreme rainfall over most parts of India.

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“…It simulates maximum wind speed over the Arabian Sea, which is an important feature in transporting moisture from the Arabian Sea toward the Indian landmass. Comparison against the EIN75 reanalysis data shows that the simulated low‐level winds are slightly weaker than in EIN75, and this can be a further contribution to the dry bias over central India (Ghosh et al, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near‐Future Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios and Their Direct Radiative Effects on the Present‐Day Characteristics of the Indian Summer Monsoon

et al. 2020

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Various air pollution mitigation scenarios have been proposed to improve the existing severe air quality problem over South Asia. Here we use a regional climate model to examine the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to two projected anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios (a) short‐lived climate pollutant “mitigation” scenario (2020–2030) and (b) current legislation “baseline” scenario (2005–2015). In the mitigation scenario, carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic carbon) emissions are projected to decrease while sulfate emissions are projected to increase. This is expected to result in a marginal increase in anthropogenic aerosol optical depth over India (by 0.04–0.08). The dominating effect of scattering aerosols over absorbing aerosols in the mitigation scenario is expected to enhance atmospheric cooling over the Indian landmass, which in turn dampens the latitudinal thermal gradient and leads to a weakening of the ISM. This effect also reduces dust emissions over the Arabian Peninsula and transport across the Arabian Sea, decreasing the influence of the dust radiative feedback on the ISM. In addition, the increased amounts of sulfate and decreased amounts of carbonaceous aerosols are expected to result in drier conditions over the central parts of India. We also show that changes in emissions of different types of anthropogenic aerosols induce a chain of feedbacks, which can modulate the space‐time variability of dust, thereby affecting the magnitude of dust radiative effects on the ISM dynamics. We conclude that it is critical from the policy point of view to implement strategies to cut the currently increasing sulfate emissions.

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Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

Cited by 34 publications

References 46 publications

Validation of ECMWF climatic data, 1979–2017, and implications for modelling water balance for tropical climates

Validation of ECMWF climatic data, 1979–2017, and implications for modelling water balance for tropical climates

Role of Arabian Sea warming on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a regional climate model

Near‐Future Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios and Their Direct Radiative Effects on the Present‐Day Characteristics of the Indian Summer Monsoon

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