As the population clock winds down: Indicative effects of population ageing in Australia’s States and Territories

Abstract

Among the more profound features of population ageing is its regionality. This regionality is particularly marked in Australia, where the timing and speed of ageing are occurring at substantially different rates by state and territory. The shift to natural decline is expected to create many social, economic and political predicaments where it is first experienced. In Australia, Tasmania will be the first to enter natural decline, followed soon thereafter by South Australia, but not for several years by the youngest states and territories. These diverging demographic forces will have many implications for the complex mixture of federal, state and local government that currently adjudicates over policymaking and implementation, especially concerning the collection of taxes, the distribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and a large element of fiscal redistribution. This paper provides an overview of demographic characteristics and dynamics by region, and examines their projected effects on three socio-economic indicators: educational demand, the labour market, and demand for Age Pensions. The changing demography will have both beneficial and adverse affects, and unless the profound regionality is soon understood and engaged with, currently older and younger states are likely to encounter not only diverging demographic forces, but also diverging fortunes.Population ageing is occurring unevenly across and within the various countries and regions of the world. A related transition to low or zero natural growth or natural decline, projected to occur in all developed countries by mid-century, is expected to cause unprecedented social, economic, and political predicaments in those countries and regions where it is first experienced. According to the United Nations Population Division (2000: 4), the emerging situation requires objective and comprehensive reassessments of many long-established economic, social and political policies and programs. This will certainly be the case in Australia, where a complex mixture of federal, state, and local governments and non-governmental agencies have responsibility for the collection of taxes, the funding and redistribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and of the State in general; and where the impact of ageing and the onset of natural decline in each state and territory will differ across a substantial time span.

Demographic Change, Differential Ageing, and Public Policy in Rural and Regional Australia: A Three‐State Case Study

“…Davies and James (2011) demonstrate a relationship between age structure and a variety of indicator variables at the SLA level at a given point in time and examine the role of migration in spatially differentiated ageing. Jackson (2004) and Jackson and Felmingham (2002) compare the rate of ageing in different Australian populations by the projected time (years) taken to increase the proportion aged ≥ 65 from 10% to 20%. There is also of course a variety of dependency ratios available (Harper, 2011); Basten et al (2013), for example, show how the old age dependency ratio can be modified to relate to prospective future life expectancy rather than a standard age of 65 years.…”

National and subnational projections of elderly living arrangements: An application of the net transition probability macrosimulation model

“…An understanding of spatial differences in the populations of the elderly is becoming more important as the speed and tempo of ageing in Australia has strong regional dimensions (Jackson and Felmingham 2002;Temple 2006a). This necessarily implies that the need for resources to meet the demands of ageing populations will differ in its timing and its geographical location.…”

“…Although there is a steadily growing literature on regional ageing in Australia (e.g. Jackson and Felmingham 2002;Hugo 2003), little is known of how the composition of these populations, apart from age and sex, will shift with population ageing.…”

Local Governments in the Wake of Demographic Change: Evidence from German Municipalities

“…Interestingly, academic research and popular opinion thus far pay most attention to population aging and its consequences (e.g., Jackson and Felmingham, 2002;Bloom and Canning, 2004;Seitz et al, 2007). Moreover, this discourse habitually centres on effects at the country or even global level (e.g., Bloom and Canning, 2004;Batini et al, 2006).…”