Are Two (Inexperienced) Heads Better Than One (Experienced) Head? Averaging House Officers?? Prognostic Judgments for Critically Ill Patients

Poses, Roy M.; Bekes, C.; Winkler, Robert L.; Scott, Erin M.; Copare, Fiore J.

doi:10.1097/00132586-199204000-00065

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Makridakis and Winkler (1983), as well as Winkler and Makridakis (1983), increased the accuracy of time series predictions by averaging across different forecasting models. In a study on medical decision making, Poses, Bekes, Winkler, Scott, and Copare (1990) found that when predicting patients' mortality risk, averaging across the opinions of rather inexperienced physicians (junior house officers in British hospitals) led to better estimates than the assessments of individual experienced physicians, even though the individual predictions of the inexperienced physicians were worse than those of the experienced ones. When forecasting the number of advertising pages sold by a news magazine, Hubbard Ashton and Ashton (1985) found that most of the improvement in accuracy is achieved by a simple average across three opinions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Scheibehenne

Bröder

2007

International Journal of Forecasting

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The outcomes of matches in the 2005 Wimbledon Gentlemen's tennis competition were predicted by mere player name recognition. In a field study, amateur tennis players (n = 79) and laypeople (n = 105) indicated players' names they recognized, and predicted match outcomes. Predictions based on recognition rankings aggregated over all participants correctly predicted 70% of all matches. These recognition predictions were equal to or better than predictions based on official ATP rankings and the seedings of Wimbledon experts, while online betting odds led to more accurate forecasts. When applicable, individual amateurs and laypeople made accurate predictions by relying on individual name recognition. However, for cases in which individuals did not recognize either of the two players, their average prediction accuracy across all matches was low. The study shows that simple heuristics that rely on a few valid cues can lead to highly accurate forecasts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Scheibehenne

Bröder

2007

International Journal of Forecasting

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“…With increasing experience, expert clinicians' cue weights should become more similar to one another. However, there is evidence that cue weights inferred from responses to paper cases vary widely among both novices and experts (Poses et al, 1990;Slovic, Rorer, & Hoffman, 1971;Wigton et al, 1986b). Further, the patterns are such that it is unlikely these differences are only the result of intersubstitution of imperfectly correlated cues (vicarious functioning).…”

Section: Variation In Physicians' Judgement Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Judgement Theory and Medical Judgement

Wigton¹

1996

Thinking & Reasoning

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“…An interview-based qualitative study was then conducted to identify what is important to physician trainees in ICU and infer on positive educational experiences for physician trainees. This study may help experts assemble more efficient learning environments, training programs and teaching strategies, like the use of narratives, more coherent with the day-to-day realities and lifeworlds of critical care physician trainees (Fins and Nilson 2000;Poses et al 1990). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critically ill patients and end-of-life decision-making: the senior medical resident experience

Ahern

Doyle

Marquis

et al. 2011

Adv in Health Sci Educ

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In order to improve the understanding of educational needs among residents caring for the critically ill, narrative accounts of 19 senior physician trainees participating in level of care decision-making were analyzed. In this multicentre qualitative study involving 9 university centers in Canada, in-depth interviews were conducted in either English or French, and the transcripts then underwent a hermeneutic phenomenological analysis. The resident was the central figure in the narrated incident, along with the patients' relatives and other attending physicians. The vast majority of interviews recounted negative experiences that involved delivering bad news to patients' families and managing difficult communications with them and with physician colleagues. Emotional distress and suffering were often part of their decision-making process. Narrating their experiences was viewed as a positive event. Data analysis uncovered 6 general themes that were organized into 2 categories, the first one grouping together themes related to interactions with the patients' families and the second comprising themes related to interactions with physician coworkers. The findings suggest that physician trainees' narratives are a rich source of data regarding what constitutes meaningful training experiences and what they learn from them. Educational approaches that incorporate the telling of stories would allow students to express their feelings, doubts, and opinions about their work experiences and could thus foster personal and emotional learning in critical care.

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Are Two (Inexperienced) Heads Better Than One (Experienced) Head? Averaging House Officers?? Prognostic Judgments for Critically Ill Patients

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Social Judgement Theory and Medical Judgement

Critically ill patients and end-of-life decision-making: the senior medical resident experience

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