Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Bröder, Arndt

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.006

Cited by 92 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…For instance, Serwe & Frings (2006) reported that collective recognition of amateur players (who knew only half of the contestants) turned out to be a better predictor of the 2004 Wimbledon tennis match outcomes (72% correct) than did the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Entry Ranking (66%), ATP Champions Race (68%), and the seeding of the Wimbledon experts (69%). Scheibehenne & Bröder (2007) found the same surprising result for Wimbledon 2006.…”

Section: Recognition Heuristicsupporting

confidence: 53%

Heuristic Decision Making

Martignon

Gaissmaier

2011

Annu. Rev. Psychol.

2,801

1,740

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

show abstract

Section: Recognition Heuristicsupporting

confidence: 53%

Heuristic Decision Making

Martignon

Gaissmaier

2011

Annu. Rev. Psychol.

2,801

1,740

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…If ␣ ϭ .5, recognition is not correlated with the criterion; if ␣ ϭ 1, recognition is perfectly correlated with the criterion (i.e., it always leads to a correct inference). Although recognition is a good cue in many real-world domains (e.g., cities' populations: Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002;Pohl, 2006; success in sports: Pachur & Biele, 2007;Scheibehenne & Bröder, 2007;Snook & Cullen, 2006;wealth: Frosch et al, 2007), it is not always. For instance, for predicting which of two French cities is larger, the recognition validity is .87 (on the basis of a sample of German participants; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002); however, it is only .60 for predicting which of two infectious diseases occurs more frequently in Germany (Pachur & Hertwig, 2006).…”

Section: Adaptive Decision Making and Cognitive Agingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive aging and the adaptive use of recognition in decision making.

Pachur¹,

Mata²,

Schooler³

2009

Psychology and Aging

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recognition heuristic, which predicts that a recognized object scores higher on some criterion than an unrecognized one, is a simple inference strategy and thus an attractive mental tool for making inferences with limited cognitive resources-for instance, in old age. In spite of its simplicity, the recognition heuristic might be negatively affected in old age by too much knowledge, inaccurate memory, or deficits in its adaptive use. Across 2 studies, we investigated the impact of cognitive aging on the applicability, accuracy, and adaptive use of the recognition heuristic. Our results show that (a) young and old adults' recognition knowledge was an equally useful cue for making inferences about the world; (b) as with young adults, old adults adjusted their use of the recognition heuristic between environments with high and low recognition validities; and (c) old adults, however, showed constraints in their ability to adaptively suspend the recognition heuristic on specific items. Measures of fluid intelligence mediated these age-related constraints.

show abstract

“…In general, RH use increases, the greater the importance of a quick decision (Hilbig, Erdfelder, & Pohl, 2012;Pachur & Hertwig, 2006) and the higher the validity of the recognition cue (Castela, Kellen, Erdfelder, & Hilbig, 2014;Hilbig, Erdfelder, & Pohl, 2010;Pachur, Mata, & Schooler, 2009;Pohl, 2006;Scheibehenne & Bröder, 2007). By contrast, integration of further knowledge increases as knowledge becomes more easily available and easier to integrate (Bröder & Eichler, 2006;Glöckner & Bröder, 2011;Hilbig, Michalkiewicz, Castela, Pohl, & Erdfelder, 2015; Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.3758/s13421-015-0567-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual differences in use of the recognition heuristic are stable across time, choice objects, domains, and presentation formats

Michalkiewicz

Erdfelder

2015

Mem Cogn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recognition heuristic (RH) is a simple decision strategy that performs surprisingly well in many domains. According to the RH, people decide on the basis of recognition alone and ignore further knowledge when faced with a recognized and an unrecognized choice object. Previous research has revealed noteworthy individual differences in RH use, suggesting that people have preferences for using versus avoiding this strategy that might be causally linked to cognitive or personality traits. However, trying to explain differences in RH use in terms of traits presupposes temporal and cross-situational stability in use of the RH, an important prerequisite that has not been scrutinized so far. In a series of four experiments, we therefore assessed the stability in RH use across (1) time, (2) choice objects, (3) domains, and (4) presentation formats of the choice objects. In Experiment 1, participants worked on the same inference task and choice objects twice, separated by a delay of either one day or one week. Experiment 2 replicated Experiment 1 using two different object sets from the same domain, whereas Experiment 3 assessed the stability of RH use across two different domains. Finally, in Experiment 4 we investigated stability across verbal and pictorial presentation formats of the choice objects. For all measures of RH use proposed so far, we found strong evidence for both temporal and cross-situational stability in use of the RH. Thus, RH use at least partly reflects a personspecific style of decision making whose determinants await further research.

show abstract

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Cited by 92 publications

References 42 publications

Heuristic Decision Making

Heuristic Decision Making

Cognitive aging and the adaptive use of recognition in decision making.

Individual differences in use of the recognition heuristic are stable across time, choice objects, domains, and presentation formats

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About