Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride From Climate Change? Evidence From Argentine Time Series

Ahumada, Hildegart; Cornejo, Magdalena

doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0387.v1

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Our results indicate a direct relationship between water deficit or variable temperatures and the achievable yield of the soybean (Felix) variety. The amount of rainfall from the sowing to blooming period, together with high temperatures had the greatest effect on the level of the soybean production, which was in accordance with the results obtained by [37,38], who found that there were negative climate effects on soybean yield, due to periods of drought and high temperatures during the growing season. The authors of [39] showed that there was a clear positive response of soybean yield to the increased mean daily maximum temperature, during seed filling, which ranged from 20 to 24 • C. The effects of temperature on soybean yield are complex, in which yield is determined by the growth and partition as well as phenological development and all these responses have different ranges of optimal temperatures.…”

Section: Climate and Soybean Yieldsupporting

confidence: 90%

The Effects of Management (Tillage, Fertilization, Plant Density) on Soybean Yield and Quality in a Three-Year Experiment under Transylvanian Plain Climate Conditions

Chețan¹,

Cheţan²,

Bogdan

et al. 2021

Land

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The regional agroecological conditions, specific to the Transylvanian Plain, are favorable to soybean crops, but microclimate changes related to global warming have imposed the need for agrotechnical adaptive measures in order to maintain the level of soybean yield. In this study, we consider the effect of two soil tillage systems, the seeding rate, as well as the fertilizer dosage and time of application on the yield and quality of soybean crops. A multifactorial experiment was carried out through the A × B × C × D − R: 3 × 2 × 3 × 3 − 2 formula, where A represents the year (a1, 2017; a2, 2018; and a3, 2019); B represents the soil tillage system (b1, conventional tillage with mouldboard plough; b2, reduced tillage with chisel cultivator); C represents the fertilizer variants (c1, unfertilized; c2, one single rate of fertilization: 40 kg ha−1 of nitrogen + 40 kg ha−1 of phosphorus; and c3, two rates of fertilization: 40 kg ha−1 of nitrogen + 40 kg ha−1 of phosphorus (at sowing) + 46 kg ha−1 of nitrogen at V3 stage); D represents the seeding rate (1 = 45 germinating grains (gg) m−2; d2 = 55 gg m−2; and d3 = 65 gg m−2); and R represents the replicates (r1 = the first and r2 = the second). Tillage had no effect, the climate specific of the years and fertilization affected the yield and the quality parameters. Regarding the soybean yield, it reacted favorably to a higher seeding rate (55–65 gg m−2) and two rates of fertilization. The qualitative characteristics of soybeans are affected by the fertilization rates applied to the crop, which influence the protein and fiber content in the soybean grains. Higher values of protein content were recorded with a reduced tillage system, i.e., 38.90 g kg−1 DM in the variant with one single rate of fertilization at a seeding rate of 45 gg per m−2 and 38.72 g kg−1 DM in the variant with two fertilizations at a seeding rate of 65 gg m−2.

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Section: Climate and Soybean Yieldsupporting

confidence: 90%

The Effects of Management (Tillage, Fertilization, Plant Density) on Soybean Yield and Quality in a Three-Year Experiment under Transylvanian Plain Climate Conditions

Chețan¹,

Cheţan²,

Bogdan

et al. 2021

Land

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show abstract

“…However, as a long run concept, weak exogeneity can give dierent results from those obtained analysis Granger causality. Ahumada and Cornejo (2018) found that all variables adjust to deviations from the long-run equilibria. This nding implies that climate variables are not weak exogenous which indicates that a system approach should be followed instead of estimating a single equation model.…”

Section: Exogeneitymentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Using daily data of maximum temperature from 54 meteorological stations of the Argentine soybean production area from 1973 to 2015, Ahumada and Cornejo (2018) constructed dierent variables that measure the number of days in a year, during the growing phase of the crop (from December to April) in which the temperature exceeded a threshold of 28…”

Section: Non-linearitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the Argentine case, Ahumada and Cornejo (2018) found that an extreme event associated with La Niña episodes (droughts) decreases soybean yields between 1% and 2% during 1973-2015. Tack and Ubilava (2013) estimate the impact of both El Niño and La Niña on average corn yields using a U.S. county level panel spanning 55 years .…”

Section: Extreme Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the Argentine case, Magrin et al (2005), by using agronomic models, found that increases in yields corresponding to climate changes between 1930-60 and 1970-2000 were 38% in the case of soybeans. In a recent paper, Ahumada and Cornejo (2018) found that the median variations on CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere could have increased soybeans yields about 14% during 1973-2015, all else equal. However, the carbon fertilization eect may not take place if other plant growth factors are severely limiting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

How Econometrics Can Help Us Understand the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Case of Soybeans

Ahumada

Cornejo

2021

The Latin American Studies Book Series

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Climate econometrics is a new eld which is providing a fruitful approach to give a rigorous basis for many hypotheses related to climate change. With this aim, this chapter illustrates how econometrics can help understand the eects of climate change on the time behavior of crop yields at a country-level scale. We discuss dierent issues which empirical studies should address such as the non-stationarity nature of climate variables, the exogeneity of the variables used for modelling crop yields, the existence of non-linearities, the presence of extreme events, disentangling short and dealing with long-run eects of climate change, and collinearities in a multivariate framework. The incorporation of new lands to production or the rise of crop yields on existing lands to meet increasing demand for food and energy may be threatened by global climate change. However, there are several factors that have reduced the harmful impacts of climate change: adaptation, trade, the declining share over time of agriculture in the economy and carbon fertilization. In particular, the CO 2 fertilization eect should be taken into account for certain crops. As an example, we focus on soybeans in the main producer and exporter countries: Brazil and United States, and particularly in Argentina, as an interesting case of mitigation and adaptation processes due to global and local climate changes.

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Soybean production and yield in the context of global climatic changes

2021

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The global context of climate change predicts increases in the risk of important climatic factors that could directly influence plant survival and crop yields. Such projections are made using models of plant growth and development, climate, and possible future scenarios. However, the use of different models and methodologies, combined with different scenarios, produces an infinity of contrasting results, considering different combinations of temperature, water distribution, and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This work makes projections of the possible climatic and environmental effects on the development and the yield of the soybean considering different scenarios. For maintenance and yield improvements, the needs and possibilities of using techniques related to the climate and the use and protection of soils and cultivars already adapted to different environments are emphasized. It is also expected that science will evolve to adapt plants to the expected stresses. Science should act to select genotypes that can respond to stresses by initiating processes that result in the activation of responses at the molecular, biochemical, and physiological level, in the fight to increase tolerance to abiotic stresses. Such advances lead us to believe that the exploration of the existing genetic variability will enable the selection of genotypes tolerant to drought, saline soils, and high temperatures. It is concluded that the set of knowledge that we have today, together with the scientific advances that are yet to come, allows humanity to continue having the hope of having a better future than those predicted in the most pessimistic scenarios.

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Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride From Climate Change? Evidence From Argentine Time Series

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

The Effects of Management (Tillage, Fertilization, Plant Density) on Soybean Yield and Quality in a Three-Year Experiment under Transylvanian Plain Climate Conditions

The Effects of Management (Tillage, Fertilization, Plant Density) on Soybean Yield and Quality in a Three-Year Experiment under Transylvanian Plain Climate Conditions

How Econometrics Can Help Us Understand the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Case of Soybeans

Soybean production and yield in the context of global climatic changes

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