Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?

Santos, Andre

doi:10.5089/9781451856972.001

Cited by 14 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…However, if the economy is growing, the probability of staying in this state is more significant, as can be seen in the table 1. These results reinforce the proposal by Santos (2002) where, although the parameter of the recessionary period is more pronounced, its duration is very short, and that growth in Mexico has been stable over this period.…”

Section: Univariate Modelssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…This characterizes the period of pronounced shrinkage. But we can see, like in Santos (2002) that the difference between them is the time duration of the phases. When the country is in regime 2 the average rate of expansion is around 5.16%.…”

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this case, we can define five periods of recession in the joint region: 1958-1959, which can be associated with political change, 1974-1975 and 1980-1981, both related to the two oil shocks and the international economic recession, and finally, the period between 1997-1998, where there were financial crises in Asia and Russia. 19551958196019741976198019911994199720032007Troughs 1959195919751975198119901995199519982002 The business cycles in Latin America post-1960 were very volatile. They remained with this feature as both during and after the oil crisis.…”

Section: Multivariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The cyclical fluctuations in these periods were characterized by the exchange rate control, market distortions and external factors, see Santos (2002). It is true that Mexico between 1994 and 1995 had to implement solid and consistent macroeconomic reforms, which have the effect of causing a reduction in the volatility of the cycles.…”

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the duration is longer than regime 1 namely, the Mexican economy is growing longer than in recession. According to Santos (2002), the asymmetry in terms of magnitude of growth and recession is one of the characteristics of Mexican cycle, unlike the Chilean economy, which has values diametrically opposed in terms of switching.…”

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Business Cycles in Latin American Economy: 1950-2007

Ness

Morais

Massuquetti

2013

REGET

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This article looks for the existence of common cycles in Latin America between 1950 and 2007. In this study, we used the technique of changing the Markovian regime, which in addition to univariate and multivariate formulations were tested bivariate arrangements. The main results indicate that it is possible to characterize the periods of growth and recessions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, especially in the two oil shocks in the beginning and the end of the 1970s; the crisis of balance of payments; and the problems of relative prices. Despite the existence of causality, bivariate models were tested between Argentina and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The results suggest that smoothing of cycles, and the existence of movements of adjustment of economies to exogenous shocks that disrupted its dynamics of growth. It was also possible to identify differences in the speed of cyclical adjustment in each economy.

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Section: Univariate Modelssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Multivariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Univariate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Business Cycles in Latin American Economy: 1950-2007

Ness

Morais

Massuquetti

2013

REGET

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How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence

Köse

Meredith

Towe

2005

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America

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This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business cycle dynamics, are documented with reference both to stylized facts and recent empirical research. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from Mexico's NAFTA experience for policymakers in developing countries. The foremost of these is that in an increasingly globalized trading system, bilateral and regional free trade arrangements should be used to accelerate, rather than postpone, needed structural reform.

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Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models

Arango¹,

Melo²

2006

Journal of Development Economics

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Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?

Cited by 14 publications

References 25 publications

Business Cycles in Latin American Economy: 1950-2007

Business Cycles in Latin American Economy: 1950-2007

How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence

Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models

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