Are cities prepared for climate change? An analysis of adaptation readiness in 104 German cities

Abstract

AbstractCities can be severely affected by climate change. Hence, many of them have started to develop climate adaptation strategies or implement measures to help prepare for the challenges it will present. This study aims to provide an overview of climate adaptation in 104 German cities. While existing studies on adaptation tracking rely heavily on self-reported data or the mere existence of adaptation plans, we applied the broader concept of adaptation readiness, considering five factors and a total of twelve different indicators, when making our assessments. We clustered the cities depending on the contribution of these factors to the overall adaptation readiness index and grouped them according to their total score and cluster affiliations. This resulted in us identifying four groups of cities. First, a pioneering group comprises twelve (mainly big) cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, which showed high scores for all five factors of adaptation readiness. Second, a set of 36 active cities, which follow different strategies on how to deal with climate adaptation. Third, a group of 28 cities showed considerably less activity toward climate adaptation, while a fourth set of 28 mostly small cities (with between 50,000 and 99,999 inhabitants) scored the lowest. We consider this final group to be pursuing a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. Since the city size correlates with the adaptation readiness index, we recommend policymakers introduce funding schemes that focus on supporting small cities, to help them prepare for the impact of a changing climate.

Measuring climate change adaptation policy output: Toward a two‐dimensional approach

“…1 Multidimensional concepts have also been developed to measure municipal sustainability policy and governance (Christen & Bornemann, 2021), institutional adaptation in urban water governance (Patterson, 2021), and adaptation readiness (Otto, Göpfert, et al, 2021). 2 In contrast to climate mitigation, where progress in policy outcomes and impacts can be expressed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, there is no straightforward common metric to gauge progress in adaptation policy outcomes and impacts.…”

“…Adaptation readiness, by contrast, is a narrower concept meant to capture governance structures and policy processes that can affect adaptation (Ford & King, 2015). Existing empirical accounts of adaptation readiness include policy (output) indicators such as adaptation plans and measures (Otto, Göpfert, & Thieken, 2021). However, they also include governance and policy process indicators such as political leadership and public support, which may be considered potential determinants rather than part of adaptation policy.…”

“…The sample includes many smaller cities and towns with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants and therefore provides a rather good approximation of the diverse settlement structure in Hessen and Germany. Existing studies have thus far typically focused on larger cities, for example, those with at least 50,000 inhabitants (e.g., Araos et al, 2016; Grafakos et al, 2019; Lesnikowski et al, 2019; Otto, Göpfert, & Thieken, 2021; Otto, Kern, et al, 2021), which neglects smaller municipalities, even though the latter are home to a substantial share of the world's population (but see, e.g., Bausch & Koziol, 2020; Buschmann et al, 2022; Campos et al, 2017; Reckien et al, 2018; Wood et al, 2014). We conduct a factor analysis to validate the CAPI, followed by cluster and regression analyses to explore the patterns revealed by our measurement approach and their potential determinants.…”

Urban expansion of Energiewende in Germany: a systematic bibliometric analysis and literature study

“…The urban expansion of Energiewende might play a vital role in climate change mitigation and energy transition because urban areas account for 77.5% of the German population [146], and urban residents' readiness for climate change adaptation was found to correlate with the size of the cities they live in [147]. It might also play an exemplary leading role in the global energy transition, as urban areas account for 80% of the global economy, 60-80% of global energy consumption, 75% of carbon emissions, and more than 75% of the world's natural resource consumption, although they only occupy 2% of the Earth's land surface [148].…”

Evaluating the Potential of Landsat Satellite Data to Monitor the Effectiveness of Measures to Mitigate Urban Heat Islands: A Case Study for Stuttgart (Germany)

“…Therefore, effective and adequate adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate change are essential to minimise the exposure of vulnerable people [1]. The adaptation in cities is particularly important due to their high exposure to the impacts of climate change caused, among others, by the UHI effect [4].…”