Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the highgrowth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ∼4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO 2 emissions (∼42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century

“…This being said, the RCP8.5 projections indicate an increase of emissions over the oceans, associated with an increase in ship and air traffic, which appears inevitable (Eyring et al, 2005;Søvde et al, 2007). Figure 1c shows the increase in BC emissions estimated by Corbett et al (2010) consequent to the evolution of ship traffic over the Arctic Ocean which could take place in addition to the RCP8.5 emissions for 2050. Note that we consider a diminution of shipping emissions for current routes, as Arctic new routes would partially replace current ones (Corbett et al, 2010).…”

“…Figure 1c shows the increase in BC emissions estimated by Corbett et al (2010) consequent to the evolution of ship traffic over the Arctic Ocean which could take place in addition to the RCP8.5 emissions for 2050. Note that we consider a diminution of shipping emissions for current routes, as Arctic new routes would partially replace current ones (Corbett et al, 2010). For this reason, the total difference in emissions with the S2 simulation is very small (only +3.9 Gg yr −1 ).…”

“…For this reason, we performed another simulation -S3 -similar to S2 but replacing the baseline Arctic ship emissions in the RCP8.5 2050 by a scenario that includes important ship traffic over Arctic routes. These larger ship emissions are based on the "high-growth" scenario of Corbett et al (2010), considering a high increase in ship traffic over the current Arctic routes. This scenario takes also into account the diversion routes opened during the summer following the seasonal retreat of sea ice expected in the next decades.…”

“…Their decrease is projected to take place in the next decades, although the exact timing is quite difficult to estimate, as the projections for energy demand, biofuel consumption and the introduction of new technologies are not set in stone (Ohara et al, 2007). In addition to anthropogenic emissions occurring in densely populated and industrialised regions, it seems that two local sources could affect the Arctic atmosphere in the decades to come: first, ship emissions could increase significantly, as summer sea-ice retreat will open new routes across the Arctic Ocean (Corbett et al, 2010). In particular, the possible increase of petroleum activities, extraction and refining, could induce an escalation of ship traffic in some parts of the Arctic.…”

Evolving research directions in Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere (SOLAS) science

“…[101] In addition, new shipping routes are becoming available in the Arctic Ocean due to decreasing seaice cover in summer. [102] Yet, regulation of ship emissions is only just being initiated and shipping currently often relies on the use of 'dirty' fuels that are not used for land-based transport. Law SOLAS research directions…”