Appropriate Methods for Evaluating the Agricultural Policies Consequences at the Farm Level

Abstract

The Common Agricultural Policy is foreseen to suffer important reforms after 2013, which will greatly affect the farm's production environment. For the a priori analysis of such policy measures, there was built a recursive single period model adapted to the Romanian farming system. The positive mathematical programming method in use, proved to be in the last period highly applied in agricultural policies impact studies at the European level. Furthermore, the model was employed in order to test three different agricultural scenarios that were proposed by the European Commission as reform alternatives. The first policy option presumes to leave unchanged the current direct payment system while slightly changing the payment distribution pattern among Member States. The second policy option envisages substantial changes of the direct payment system that would be allocated only if farmers bring societal benefits. The last option consists in phasing out direct payments and provides limited financial support to farmers through the second Common Agricultural Policy pillar (rural development). All these options were investigated on the economical and financial data of 21 Romanian farms categorized according to the European classification system as mixed crops livestock farms. Results show that all these policy options have important effects on the farm revenue, in the sense that a decrease in the subsidy level produces important average gross margin falls. Soft landing approach in the first CAP pillar's reform is desirable especially for the Romanian agriculture that still presents important farm structural shortcomings.

Modeling the impact assessment of agricultural sector on economic development as a basis for the country’s investment potential

“…Considering that the system of financial support of the agricultural industry is in a state of constant transformation, this necessitates its constant dynamic theoretical analysis. In general, the scientists focused their attention on limited financial support for the agricultural sector (Jitea, 2011), the role of the state mechanism in agricultural production (Poczta-Wajda, 2015), underdeveloped financial and credit mechanism to meet the needs of farmers (Gmyria, 2013), high risk of investment in agricultural production (Davydenko & Skryphyk, 2017) and other problematic aspects. Few articles of Nigerian authors researched the agricultural sector and its impact on the country's economy and empirically examined the impact of this sector on the economic growth in Nigeria, using time series data from 1981 to 2013.…”

An ex-ante impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy reform in the North-Western Romania

“…Despite all these works, few researches underline the impact of the agricultural policy shifts in the Central and Eastern Europe (Anderson and Swinnen 2010;Davidova 2011;Jitea 2011;Wegener et al 2011). Similar information is not available for the Alpine and Sub-Alpine grassland regions in the Eastern Europe.…”

“…The optimal survey size in a stratified sample without replacement, for a maximum error limit of 5% and a probability to guarantee the results of 95%, was established to 207 farms (Jitea et al 2011). It had several strata, such as the county and the physical farm size expressed in the number of the mother sheep with a minimum threshold of 50 sheep, to take into account the moment when they become eligible for subsidies.…”

A Közös Agrárpolitika közvetlen támogatásainak regionális gazdasági hatásai = Regional Economic Impact of Common Agricultural Policy Direct Payments

“…Arra az általános következtetésre jutottak, hogy a közvetlen támogatások kisebb szintű csökkentése is negatív hatással lenne a helyi gazdaságra (GDP csökkenés, kedvezőtlen társadalmi hatások, csökkenő foglalkoztatás). Jitea et al (2011) egy román példán keresztül vizsgált meg különböző támogatási forgatókönyveket a 2013-as KAP reform előtti időszakban. Az adatokat 21 vegyes állattartású gazdaságban felvételezték Kolozs megyében 2010-2011-ben, amelyekkel aztán különböző támogatási feltételeket modelleztek (status quo; megreformált közvetlen támogatások zöldítési kifizetéssel; a közvetlen támogatások teljes kivezetése).…”