Approaches to Solving the Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude (Mmax) Problem

Писаренко, В. Ф.; Родкин, М. В.

doi:10.1007/s10712-021-09673-1

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Partly, development of M M A X models has flourished since approaches to falsify them are limited [35,68]. For example, the central tendency of an unbounded M L R G is comparable to that of volume-based M M A X estimates [6], confounding the separation of these two interpretations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes

Schultz

2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The largest magnitude earthquake in a sequence is often used as a proxy for hazard estimates, as consequences are often predominately from this single event (in small seismic zones). In this article, the concept of order statistics is adapted to infer the maximum magnitude ( M M A X ) of an earthquake catalogue. A suite tools developed here can discern M M A X influences through hypothesis testing, quantify M M A X through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or select the best M M A X prediction amongst several models. The efficacy of these tools is benchmarked against synthetic and real-data tests, demonstrating their utility. Ultimately, 13 cases of induced seismicity spanning wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing and enhanced geothermal systems are tested for volume-based M M A X . I find that there is no evidence of volume-based processes influencing any of these cases. On the contrary, all these cases are adequately explained by an unbounded magnitude distribution. This is significant because it suggests that induced earthquake hazards should also be treated as unbounded. On the other hand, if bounded cases exist, then the tools developed here will be able to discern them, potentially changing how an operator mitigates these hazards. Overall, this suite of tools will be important for better-understanding earthquakes and managing their risks. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes

Schultz

2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…The statistical estimation of the maximum possible magnitude, hereinafter referred to as M max , has been performed in Zöller and Holschneider (2016). Based on earlier work (Holschneider et al , 2011;Pisarenko and Rodkin , 2022), it has been argued that the confidence interval is the most informative measure to describe the range of M max that can be inferred from an earthquake catalog. An estimation of the frequency-magnitude distribution's tail is impossible unless a large number of observations samples the tail.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity Scenarios for the Remaining Operating Period of the Gas Field in Groningen, Netherlands

Zöller

Hainzl

2022

Seismological Research Letters

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In recent years, induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field caused increasing public concern and became a critical factor for future gas production plans. Zöller and Holschneider (2016) estimated the upper bound of the 90% confidence interval for the maximum possible magnitude based on the earthquake catalog until 2016 and found M 4.4. In this study, we show that the updated estimate for earthquake activity until 2022 decreases to M 4.0. For the 95% confidence interval, the upper bound that was infinite for the catalog until 2016 decreases to the value M 4.2 for the updated catalog. Because the frequency–magnitude distribution is stable within the uncertainties, it is likely that the growth of the earthquake catalog since 2016 has led to decreasing uncertainties and thus to smaller confidence intervals. Second, we find that a model based on rate-and-state dependent friction with additional aftershocks fits the available data well. Despite the overall decreasing earthquake rate resulting from decreasing production volumes, scenario calculations based on simulated pressure and compaction data indicate a considerable probability that the maximum expected magnitude in the next 30 yr exceeds the maximum observed magnitude from the past 30 yr.

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“…Another important parameter in seismic hazard studies is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude (Mmax). Pisarenko and Rodkin (2022) review the problem of Mmax assessment and analysed statistical, historical and paleoseismic aspects of it. They consider and classify various estimators of Mmax used in seismological practice, including the maximum likelihood, the moment method, the Bayesian formalism, the extreme value theory and the estimators using order statistics.…”

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confidence: 99%

Guest Editorial: Special Issue on “Lithosphere Dynamics and Earthquake Hazard Forecasting”

et al. 2022

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Brilliant scientific ideas coupled with quantitative modelling and laboratory experiments have determined progress in seismology and geodynamics for the last several decades. Methods of nonlinear geophysics, inverse problems, mathematical statistics, extreme theory and data analysis have improved knowledge of the structure of the Earth's lithosphere, earthquake generation, predictability, and seismic hazards.This Special Issue of Surveys in Geophysics "Lithosphere Dynamics and Earthquake Hazard Forecasting" is dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the birth of Professor Vladimir (Volodya) Keilis-Borok (1921-2013, a distinguished mathematical geophysicist. For more than 60 years, the topics of seismology, nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere, and earthquake prediction were central in Keilis-Borok's research. His scientific contributions covered many challenging areas and problems, including

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Approaches to Solving the Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude (Mmax) Problem

Cited by 12 publications

References 88 publications

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes

Seismicity Scenarios for the Remaining Operating Period of the Gas Field in Groningen, Netherlands

Guest Editorial: Special Issue on “Lithosphere Dynamics and Earthquake Hazard Forecasting”

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