Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

Goldstein, Noah; Candau, Jeannette; Clarke, Keith

doi:10.1016/s0198-9715(02)00046-7

Cited by 47 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…SLEUTH (Clarke et al 1997) is a model that has been widely cited in the literature, uses a well-documented calibration routine, and has been applied in numerous geographic locations (Silva and Clarke 2002, Esnard and Yang 2003, Yang and Lo 2003, Leão et al 2004. Admittedly, the spatial analysis of model forecasts has a large degree of uncertainty associated with it since the future cannot be validated (Goldstein et al 2004). Nevertheless, SLEUTH is a model that is exhaustively calibrated based on the historical patterns and dynamics of an urban system.…”

Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The forecasted urban development allowed for an extension of the temporal frame of the study to the full century of urbanization that has been identified as appropriate for regional scale growth studies (Blumenfeld 1954, Boyce 1966. It should be reemphasized at this point that the model results contain a significant level of uncertainty because we have no means of validating future growth projections (Goldstein et al 2004). Therefore, they were only used as general trend indicators…”

Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Dietzel

Herold

Hemphill

et al. 2005

International Journal of Geographical Information Science

260

158

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This paper explores an addition to theory in urban geography pertaining to spatio-temporal dynamics. Remotely sensed data on the historical extent of urban areas were used in a spatial metrics analysis of geographical form of towns and cities in the Central Valley of California (USA). Regularities in the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth were detected and characterized over a hundred year period. To test hypotheses about variation over geographical scale, multiple spatial extents were used in examining a set of spatial metric values including an index of contagion, the mean nearest neighbor distance, urban patch density and edge density. Through changes in these values a general temporal oscillation between phases of diffusion and coalescence in urban growth was revealed. Analysis of historical datasets revealed preliminary evidence supporting an addition to the theory of urban growth dynamics, one alluded to in some previous research, but not well developed. The empirical results and findings provide a lead for future research into the dynamics of urban growth and further development of existing urban theory.

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Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Dietzel

Herold

Hemphill

et al. 2005

International Journal of Geographical Information Science

260

158

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although the lack of zoning information forced us to make this assumption, the predictions under the E2 may become problematic. Besides, the extrapolation of future urban growth beyond the calibration range can be questionable and generate uncertain results (Goldstein et al, 2004). Modelers ought to make a trade-off between land use predictions and the projections of climate-change-related hazards.…”

Section: Modeling and Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Song¹,

Fu²,

Gu³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) -a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 -historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

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“…Bierwagen's (2003) dissertation focused on simulating generic urban forms and examining the connectedness in the landscape in order to assess the viability of different urban growth forms on butterfly habitat. Goldstein et al (2004) compared using SLEUTH for the -back casting‖ of urban extent with spatiotemporal interpolation. Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present.…”

Section: Application Of Sleuth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting urban sprawl in Dhaka city of Bangladesh

Pramanik

Stathakis

2015

Environ Plann B Plann Des

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Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is expected to be one of the five largest cities of the world by 2025 in terms of population. The rapid urban growth experienced by the city in the recent decades is one of the highest in the world. Urban expansion of Dhaka was slow in the 1950s, but strong growth followed the independence of Bangladesh in 1971. To understand Dhaka city growth dynamics and to forecast its future expansion by the year 2030, a self-modifying cellular automata Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban extension, Transportation and Hillshade model was used in this research using satellite images from 1989 to 2014. This model showed two interesting findings. First, approximately an additional 20% of the metropolitan area will be converted into built-up land by 2030 amounting to about 177 sq km. Second, the spatial trend of sprawl will be towards the north and north-west. The interpretation of depicting the future scenario as demonstrated in this research will be of great value to urban planners and decision makers, for the future planning of Dhaka.

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Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

Cited by 47 publications

References 17 publications

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Forecasting urban sprawl in Dhaka city of Bangladesh

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